Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Content to Wait

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Today was very dynamic, to say the least. It started off with a plunge, rallied, fell even harder, and then rallied its way into the green. People were whipsawed all over the place.

Interestingly, the $VIX tagged the underbelly of its trendline precisely. I was sort of amazed at this, but I am watching the VIX closely given all the chatter about how there has been no capitulation based on the fact the VIX is still in the mid-20s. Anyway, I'm not convinced the VIX is going to be soaring into the 30s any time soon.

I have been calling for "the bounce" the past couple of days; I was slamming myself this morning for owning index calls since the GLOBEX started off way down, but at the end of the day, it seems I was right. But I am not going to chase this bear market rally with calls. I am content to wait. I will probably miss out on some profits, but it's pretty clear we're in a bear market now, and I think it's much more of a gamble to buy calls, even with a rally at hand, in the context of a bear market.

The Russell "tagged" its head and shoulders target beautifully. I would be very excited about $RUT again if it got up close to 720.

A very strong bullish argument can be made for the S&P 500 in particular. Anyone with at least one eyeball can see we've nicely pegged a triple bottom here – mid-January, mid-March, and July 1.

For those that want to do some equity plays, there are plenty of blue chip issues that have been beaten into submission. MMM is one idea.

And PFG looks due for a bounce as well.

These "bounce" plays are fraught with peril, but here's another idea, just to round it out – TXT.

As I keep saying, ad nauseum, most of my puts are oriented in energy, agriculture, and metals. I like how US Steel is shaping up (I got puts on this a couple of days ago).

Trading during major "turnarounds" is very hard, and it can be very expensive. I am "standing down the missiles" by holding no index options at all right now. As I said, I'm content to wait. Sometimes doing nothing is the hardest thing to do of all.

The Bottom Seems to Be In!

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Today has been INSANE, but I think it marks the intermediate term bottom. I sold my $RUT puts (bought today, and sold intraday for excellent profits) and acquired SPX calls earlier.

The $RUT shows a superb example of head and shoulders in action. Specifically:

Neckline: 719.37 (low price on 5/23)

Top of Head: 763.27 (high price on 6/5)

Projected Target: 675.97

Low Price Today: 676.47 (close enough for me!)

In addition, USO seems to have given up its latest rally attempt. My puts are strongly oriented toward energy and agriculture, as you know.

He Liked to Feel It

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Forget this "bull" stuff. I've reverted to my nasty old self, buying RUT puts. I'm sticking with where things are weak.

In the meantime, this is one of my favorite esoteric songs ever, from the Crash Test Dummies. Watch and enjoy! {Life tip: if you ever ask someone what kind of music they like, and they tell you "anything, as long as it's got a good beat and you can dance to it", him or her them over the head with a vase and run like mad).

???­

SPUssy

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Those acquainted with futures symbols and month codes might find this post's title somewhat clever. Others will simply roll their eyes in disgust.

In any event, in spite of me knowing better, I just couldn't stomach hanging onto that S&P call position. After the ISM pop, I got out of those things. The S&P 500 chart still looks potentially fantastic from a bullish perspective. But the feeling I had this morning when I saw that GLOBEX was stomach-churning. I don't want to go through that again.

In spite of my fears this morning, I am way in the green today. The irony is that I'm not quite sure why. Crude oil is up big-time (again……….it's getting kind of monotonous). And Lord knows my S&P calls didn't throw off profits – – simply a much more modest loss than feared.

Guess I'd better dust off the charts and see what's going on behind the nice fat green dollar signs on my screen. Suffice it to say, I was gripping the armrests of my chair at the opening this morning, but I feel better now. I feel better than James Brown. (tip of the hat to Was Not Was).

Permabear

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It is just a skosh ironic – actually, kind of painful – to be a "permabear" and still underestimate just how far the market will fall.

Normally this kind of GLOBEX screen would make me beam with delight. With a big index call position, however, it shocks and frustrates me. It's mitigated by a boatload of other (smaller) put positions, but I've got to – – this is a shocker.

I can only assume at this point that the $RUT is going to soon nail the target I set out for it in the first place; just a lot earlier than I thought it would ever get there. Ugh.