Today was very dynamic, to say the least. It started off with a plunge, rallied, fell even harder, and then rallied its way into the green. People were whipsawed all over the place.
Interestingly, the $VIX tagged the underbelly of its trendline precisely. I was sort of amazed at this, but I am watching the VIX closely given all the chatter about how there has been no capitulation based on the fact the VIX is still in the mid-20s. Anyway, I'm not convinced the VIX is going to be soaring into the 30s any time soon.
I have been calling for "the bounce" the past couple of days; I was slamming myself this morning for owning index calls since the GLOBEX started off way down, but at the end of the day, it seems I was right. But I am not going to chase this bear market rally with calls. I am content to wait. I will probably miss out on some profits, but it's pretty clear we're in a bear market now, and I think it's much more of a gamble to buy calls, even with a rally at hand, in the context of a bear market.
The Russell "tagged" its head and shoulders target beautifully. I would be very excited about $RUT again if it got up close to 720.
A very strong bullish argument can be made for the S&P 500 in particular. Anyone with at least one eyeball can see we've nicely pegged a triple bottom here – mid-January, mid-March, and July 1.
For those that want to do some equity plays, there are plenty of blue chip issues that have been beaten into submission. MMM is one idea.
And PFG looks due for a bounce as well.
These "bounce" plays are fraught with peril, but here's another idea, just to round it out – TXT.
As I keep saying, ad nauseum, most of my puts are oriented in energy, agriculture, and metals. I like how US Steel is shaping up (I got puts on this a couple of days ago).
Trading during major "turnarounds" is very hard, and it can be very expensive. I am "standing down the missiles" by holding no index options at all right now. As I said, I'm content to wait. Sometimes doing nothing is the hardest thing to do of all.
