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The GDP came in, showing the economy is shrinking. In follow-up news, the Pope was declared to be a Catholic and grass was cited as typically being green.
Reviewing McHugh and Elliott Wave last night, I could be talked into the possibility of another lurch downward, but I consider that a less than even chance. I have a lot of faith in the strength of oil, gold, silver, and other commodities. As for the ES, we'll need to push about 971.25 in order to affirm a breakout above the trendline.
OK, it's going to be one of those nights where I just blew it in blogland. It's nearly midnight, and I still haven't done a "real" post for the day. Grumble……
It's by no means a sure thing, but I think there's a decent change of a strong up day on Thursday; if the GDP fits the "not so horrible" category, we could "launch" another Fibonacci level higher. Now, looking at NQ and ES at this very moment, ES looks vulnerable and NQ looks like a launch candidate. Of course, these two are going to move the same direction once the GDP is announced, so I'm flat on both, since there's simply no clarity right now.
In spite of the Dow being in the eight-thousands, there are still good shorting opportunities, if you are so inclined. Here are a few graphs that represent good bearish configurations (and there are plenty of others).
The most bullish zone I see right now is in the realm of energy.This crude oil graph looks ready to bounce much higher. The high 70s is virtually a foregone conclusion, and $95 is a better-than-average possibility. I'm going to hang on to my bevy of energy longs for a while.
That's going to be it for me for now. I'll be back in front of the screen in a few hours.
Just one chart for now, out of nothing but guilt.
I closed my ES and NQ soon after the close at good prices; I'm long 10 ES right now; I think the odds of a "not-so-horrible" GDP are very real.
I'll do a post later tonight, once the darlings are asleep.
Sorry I'm so late with the post tonight, everyone. I'm messing around with something new on my computer. Check back later – – – I'm sure I'll have a few things to say!
In the meantime, I'll mention I covered my ES and NQ puts, just to be on the safe side. Obviously none of us know what the GDP is going to be tomorrow morning, but the market could blast higher if the news is perceived as not-so-bad. The profits from my NQ and ES puts took only about 15 minutes to blossom, so I was happy to take 'em while it was safe.
Looking just at today's Dow number – – off 74 – – it would seem like kind of a do-nothing day. But it wasn't. Gobbling up long positions yesterday had turned out really well, and below is just a sampling of the percent change of some of my positions just from yesterday's close. Whoo-hoo!
I'll do a useful post later.
