One might think I would be getting devastated today, with the Dow up nearly 250 at one point. It's a down day for me, to be sure, but as I am typing this (with the Dow up 184), my portfolios are collectively down 0.73%. The reason is because, unlike most "hedge" funds, I truly do keep myself hedged (even though this is my personal account, and not a hedge fund). I'd be doing better if things were getting nuked, but I can live with a fractional percentage loss in the face of a big up day.
I have been far, far too busy today to look at comments (I've been doing well to even get posts out the door), but I will say this: part of the reason I was so indignant during the first half of 2007 was because I knew the market was based on puffery and lies. I knew it couldn't last. The trouble it, is it hard to tell how long the masses will get fooled before things fall to pieces. As was oft-cited during the run upward, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
In my opinion, the run-up we are witnessing is just a jumbo-sized con job, this time in the face of a "stimulus" package. As I've said repeatedly, I do think the market will at some point enjoy a sustained, robust rally, and I would be delighted to take part in that. But I don't think that time is here yet.
There are few assurances one can have in life, but here is one I think is very solid: next week is going to be extremely interesting for bulls and bears alike. As to who will prevail………..that remains to be seen. It depends on how gullible the public is, and how long that gullibility will last.
As a side note, I'll be doing a "Spotlight" session with Scott Sheridan this afternoon, so this will be my final post until this evening. Thanks, and I hope you are doing great today (if you're long) or are hanging in there through the storm (if you're short).
