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It's been a really weird morning so far. In a way, it's been terribly rough. I have been blown out of many put positions (naturally), but I'm still up pretty nicely for the day across all my accounts, particularly my high-flying IRA account.
I have some serious catching-up to do with charts, so no new ideas for the moment. I will say as an aside that a final run-up late today would be pretty cool, since I think that would present some good shorting opportunities at good prices.
Stop price=40.82
My "safe bet" these days is commodities – – more specifically, DBC. The basing and volume action on this has been terrific, and I've got a nice, clean stop at 19.38. This is far and away my largest position, and I have it in a couple of different accounts. I also know I'm not going to wake up one morning and find out that wheat, oats, and crude oil have all been cooking the books all these years. They're commodities. They are real.
As for bullishness on equities in general, I'll feel a lot more confident if and when we can get a breakout on the /NQ above 1286.50. If we can do that, I think it's off to the races.
In the wonderful movie Master and Commander, Russell Crowe's character sees that the Acheron, the enemy ship, has managed to sneak up on him yet again. "This is the second time he has done this. There will not be a third."
I decided the same thing about /ES earlier this evening. Although I was short, I was quite concerned about the strength I was witnessing when the /ES was up 4.50 points. I reversed the position (purchase price=814), and I also bought into 25 /NQ at 1256.89.
The pullback from last week's strength was short-lived, and with a general target of about 1050 on the S&P, I need to be more bold with my /ES (and /NQ) long positions. The first couple of times I've gone long I only took a couple of points. That needs to end. I need to take a bigger piece out of the move, which means wider stops and more patience.
Both positions have, just in the past couple of hours, moved nicely into the green. I think I'll do a post tomorrow on why I'm feeling more comfortable in my bull suit these days. It's an important topic.
