First off, if you haven't read yesterday's post, please do. The comments in it are really fantastic. The community we've got going here is just marvelous; thank you!

Second, if you haven't checked out my Alternate Investment Fund survey, please do. This will be the second-to-last time I'll mention it. I'll link to it once more next week, and then I'll shut up about it permanently. This survey is only intended for accredited investors who might have an interest in a fund strictly based on technical analysis, so otherwise you should ignore it.

Third, I've often heard it said that the market likes to prove the most people wrong. I was thinking to myself, what scenario could play out in the weeks ahead that would tick off the most people? I think something like this:

What I've scribbled out above is an S&P which free-falls again to March's lows (plus or minus a little bit). How would the different camps react to this?

• The bears would, of course, be delighted at first, but here's the clincher – – I think the bears have been so battered for the past 7 weeks, that the moment the S&P gets anywhere close to the 780-800 range, they're going to close out everything and engage in a big group hug. 780 is the number everyone is talking about. If the market simply keeps falling, the bears are going to be furious (and feel mighty cheated), since the easy and obvious take-profits point didn't matter much. My point is that the bears will leave almost all the potential profits on the table.
• The bulls would be equally furious, too, because all their easy profits from the past 7 weeks – – – especially from the high-flying momentum stocks – – would go up in smoke. Their relief would come with a double-bottom, but frankly I think newer bulls would feel so betrayed by the market (again) that they would not be as enthusiastic to re-enter.

I find myself engaging more and more in these "what-if" scenarios, since I think it's valuable not to get married to one prospective move but instead massage your mind into being prepared for various eventualities and your corresponding strategy therein.

Well, I'm done with my exam, and wow, it was a tough one. I'll be kind of stunned if I actually manage to pass it. I'll find out in a few weeks, I'm told.

Speaking of stunned, that's how I felt (mildly) when I saw this in today's Barron's, which I've scanned in for you:

I honestly thought it wouldn't be until autumn that we say this kind of public sycophancy. I mean, seriously. "Thank You"? Isn't it just a little premature?

But Sy Harding might be right in this respect – – maybe 2009 will be the bottom of the bear. I've tried to look at the long-term charts with fresh eyes, and I'm starting to question my oft-repeated notion that we're going to claw our way to 1,050 by autumn and then plummet to the 400s on the S&P.

I'm actually thinking there's another strong possibility – – one which I'd love short-term but will like a lot less longer-term, and it is this………….

1. Start softening up very soon, and make our way to just about (or a little below) last month's lows;
2. That would make the low for years to come, but………..
3. We'd be range-bound for many, many, many years

Item (1) is actually pretty close to what I've read Atilla declare a number of times recently. As I look at the long-term (and I'm talking about the entire history, on a daily basis) S&P chart, it occurs to me that the wipe-out we've seen so far has done just about all the damage it can do, and there's only a little more downside left below last month's lows (side note: can you believe that term – "last month's lows" – doesn't the low at 666 seem like it was years ago?)

On the other hand, looking at another major index – the Transports – I can actually see a lot more downside.

The dreadful possibility is that……….after we're done thanking Mr. Obama……….we could be in for basically a market that, year by year, people are less interested in. Take a look at this chart of the S&P 500 from the late 60s, 70s, and early 80s:

Let me put this into perspective. Imagine you trade one stock, and no matter what, the stock never seems to go much lower than $70 or much higher than $100. And imagine that stock behaves that way for twenty-five years. Kind of boring, isn't it? Well, that's what a market like the above would feel like.

So I think the prospect of a new bull market any time soon is not strong. And I think the prospect of a big Great Depression-style plunge is also more remote than I used to. My "preferred count", as it were, is a sooner-than-expected drop toward March's lows, and that'll be the end of the party. This is not wishful thinking on my part. I'd rather have a rock 'em, sock 'em, horrendous bear market that drags on for years. But I'm not so sure that's in the cards. I'll look at more charts this weekend to keep contemplating this.