I believe equity markets will fall next week, and they may fall a meaningful amount ("meaningful" being 50-100 points on the S&P). Having looked at my index charts, I believe the only thing that will continue pushing the market higher will be company after company announcing shocking positive earnings, a la RIMM. I think the odds of that happening are somewhere close to a number that rhymes with "hero."

Astonishing earnings blowouts notwithstanding, I am looking at a sea of charts that are right up against huge resistance levels.

I also see that the NZD/USD, which I used to follow religiously, is at the major 50% retracement level and is up against a crucial level of resistance.

The only bright spot in the world of equities, I think, is high-tech. A bit of a pullback would just make buying high-tech NASDAQ stocks even more compelling.

The stock market has been up solidly four weeks in a row. The Russell 2000 is up 33% in just nineteen trading sessions! If we end higher by Good Friday, I will be very surprised. I intend to hold on to most of my longs during the anticipated downturn, notwithstanding any stop-outs that get hit.

I have to run soon, but I was very quickly going through comments, and a comment from this contributor caught my eye:

I've no idea how you trade and what you trade. Have you ever got a
chance to reconcile your statements? If its bullish you've a claim, if
its bearish you've a claim.. This is more like a ponzi scheme :)..
Sorry to say that but a bit confused on the overall positioning as a
trader..

Anything which impugns my integrity catches my attention, so I want to address this at once.

I feel I am probably the most transparent financial blogger out there. I post every single one of my positions, both long and short, and these are personal accounts. I do everything except scan in and post my bank statements on this blog.

The insinuation above is that I can always claim I am winning. Complete crap! In the most recent post, I specifically wrote

At the other extreme of the spectrum is my personal portfolio, which is 100% pure, unadulterated puts. This one, cough cough, did not reach a new high today (averting eyes).

It doesn't take a genius to divine that I am getting slaughtered in my personal portfolio.

So the notion that I am running around saying I am just nailing the market left and right is absurd. The beauty of running four different portfolios is that I can see what's working well vis a vis the market. It's actually a very illuminating situation. In my IRA, I am up 723% from 15 months ago, and that overshadows everything else I am doing. Does that mean I should change all my trading to wacky little penny stocks? Not at all. That would be foolhardy.

The point I was trying to make in the prior post is that, as a trader, I am finally at a point where I can let winners run. That's a valuable skill. And that was my only point.

Now, if I am overreacting, and the general question was whether I am bullish or bearish, I think the "game plan" I've laid out repeatedly answers this. I think it's simple-minded to say one is Bearish or Bullish right now. It's a matter of timeframe. I am, in this environment, increasingly bullish. At the same time, I see many wonderful short opportunities, and I am in those positions. I would also add that I am ready to take advantage of any short-term softness, but all my attempts to do so in recent weeks have yielded nothing but losses or missed opportunities. Between now and the end of next year, I see a complete wipeout and I am so bearish that I am contemplating some very serious life changes to take advantage of that shift.

So if you really demand an answer, I guess I would say "bullish short term, but with plenty of shorts, bullish medium-term, and wild-eyed bearish long term."

Happy?