I have to run soon, but I was very quickly going through comments, and a comment from this contributor caught my eye:
I've no idea how you trade and what you trade. Have you ever got a
chance to reconcile your statements? If its bullish you've a claim, if
its bearish you've a claim.. This is more like a ponzi scheme :)..
Sorry to say that but a bit confused on the overall positioning as a
trader..
Anything which impugns my integrity catches my attention, so I want to address this at once.
I feel I am probably the most transparent financial blogger out there. I post every single one of my positions, both long and short, and these are personal accounts. I do everything except scan in and post my bank statements on this blog.
The insinuation above is that I can always claim I am winning. Complete crap! In the most recent post, I specifically wrote
At the other extreme of the spectrum is my personal portfolio, which is 100% pure, unadulterated puts. This one, cough cough, did not reach a new high today (averting eyes).
It doesn't take a genius to divine that I am getting slaughtered in my personal portfolio.
So the notion that I am running around saying I am just nailing the market left and right is absurd. The beauty of running four different portfolios is that I can see what's working well vis a vis the market. It's actually a very illuminating situation. In my IRA, I am up 723% from 15 months ago, and that overshadows everything else I am doing. Does that mean I should change all my trading to wacky little penny stocks? Not at all. That would be foolhardy.
The point I was trying to make in the prior post is that, as a trader, I am finally at a point where I can let winners run. That's a valuable skill. And that was my only point.
Now, if I am overreacting, and the general question was whether I am bullish or bearish, I think the "game plan" I've laid out repeatedly answers this. I think it's simple-minded to say one is Bearish or Bullish right now. It's a matter of timeframe. I am, in this environment, increasingly bullish. At the same time, I see many wonderful short opportunities, and I am in those positions. I would also add that I am ready to take advantage of any short-term softness, but all my attempts to do so in recent weeks have yielded nothing but losses or missed opportunities. Between now and the end of next year, I see a complete wipeout and I am so bearish that I am contemplating some very serious life changes to take advantage of that shift.
So if you really demand an answer, I guess I would say "bullish short term, but with plenty of shorts, bullish medium-term, and wild-eyed bearish long term."
Happy?
