Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Wedge

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A few folks have pointed out the bearish wedge being formed in the market (and, as I type this late on Wednesday evening, the /ES continues to grind higher).

I have no interest in getting uber-bearish until this wedge is broken. It's been frustrating enough having the market punch its way to new highs every week, and thank goodness for all my small high-percentage plays, since those have really helped balanced out the battering my puts and shorts have taken.

Someone wrote to me perturbed that I didn't have a firm stance right now on the market. I think it would be dangerous for a person to have to be strongly bullish or bearish at any one time. I think the market is quite a muddle right now, but it's quite obvious that the stocks that went from $40 to $1 have had sensational percentage gains over the past six weeks, and far more substantial gains may be in store. So I continue to be straddling both ships, the HMS Bear and the HMS Bull, hoping not to topple into the water before this is all over.

Autumn was fun. This isn't fun. But we need to endure it and try to profit from it while we wait for the tumble to resume. As I've said repeatedly, that could be a few more months off.

Bottoms-Up

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There are a couple of facts that came together that were of aid to me in my trading today: (1) my portfolios each have different "personalities" and components, in spite of them all having the same style (which is my own); and (2) as I went through my 34 IRA positions, trimming them down to 24, I took it upon myself to go through my "Wrecks" watchlist of over 300 components.

The fact I went through the Wrecks watchlist was eye-opening to me, and here's why: even though there were a number of stocks that I felt had, for the time, shot their wad, I was really surprised to see how many stocks still looked like really enticing purchases. I wrote about them earlier today. So even though the market has lurched 30% higher in just a matter of weeks, there are still many stocks which look like really high-reward/low-risk setups. So before day was over, my "shrunken" list of 24 IRA positions had doubled to 48. And here's the amazing part – – of the 24 positions that are new as of today, 22 of them are already profitable! Here are a couple of examples.

This was at once troubling and exhilirating to me at the same time.

It was troubling in that I have a lot of puts and shorts, and I'd obviously love to make a lot of money on them. Unless and until we get a nice, healthy downswing (let's say 100 points on the S&P), these positions are just going to sit. So that's frustrating.

What's exhilirating to me is that I am proving to myself that I can keep an open mind about the markets, and that even in the course of cutting my exposure on my IRA positions, I can still open my eyes to new possibilities that are unquestionably bullish. I have struggled so long to be able to get out of this bear suit I was born in, and I know I am making real headway.

The "net-net" of today was an extremely small loss across all portfolios – – a tiny fraction of a percent. I still don't have any firm conviction about where the market is going, and frankly, I don't think the market does either!

New Lottery Ideas

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OK, here are some symbols I've uncovered with interesting percentage gain potential; stop prices follow each symbol. I'm sure if you have other symbols to contribute, the group would be interested.

APL 3.24
BANR 3.03
BID 8.53
CDNS 4.25
CSCX 2.80
EFII 9.24
EJ 10.29
FNM .64
FR 2.60
HBAN 2.24
HTCH 1.55
IMP 2.13
KHD 6.70
LAD 1.84
LINTA 3.39
NXTM 2.16
PSUN 1.34
SKH 7.81
TIV .99
TRMA 2.60
URE 2.60
UYG 2.88
VRGY 8.10
ZUMZ 8.20