Hi all, Gary from Biiwii still short the market (actually bullishly biased when gold stocks are factored) and not blinking – yet.
One of my short positions is on China using the FXP inverse ETF. On the surface it looks like the bulls have won again, but is it really so? On a G-20 pump no less? I am not so sure.
Take a look at the daily chart of FXI and tell me what you see, a bullish breakout or a gap up at the end of a short term trend, fueled by global macro-economic pumpers in positions of authority? I see a market with a terrible risk vs. reward ratio, and it goes beyond China. We are seeing gap ups all around, including in my gold miners.
This is not to say it will not be different this time. I have a tolerance level on the broad markets as per the 60 minute chart of the S&P 500 I showed last week. We are basically there. Most of the items I am short against are not at new highs. These include the SPX itself, real estate, euro and financials. I chose to look at the FXI today however because it is at new highs and it has left a nice progression of ill-fated gap-ups throughout this rally built on waning momentum.
Let's see how it turns out.