Taking a Queue from Crude

By -

I don't have time for a lengthy post, but I wanted to write up something quickly.

Emotions are definitely running hot right now. Bulls are absolutely exultant; bears are dejected beyond measure. I was quite content to watch the market action today. I added to a number of existing short positions, and I tightened up stops on my longs. In my opinion, today's rally presented a good "selling-into" opportunity.

During trying times like this, I emphasize – again – the importance of thinking for yourself. I have been doing this a very, very long time, and I've got capital and risk management that some folks may not be employing. Blindly aping me or anyone else is a recipe for disaster. So while I'm happy to talk about what I think of the markets, during times like these, it's more important than ever to steer your own boat.

I do note that a critical chart I watch – crude oil – is hovering right around its major 50% retracement level. In spite of the dollar's amazing weakness, crude remains well off its highs, and I think if the dollar strengthens, energy is going to move down and move down big.

Reading tonight's short-term update from EWI, it's evident that they are shying away (quickly) from the notion that primary 3 is underway. Their contention seems to be that if there's even a little more strength tomorrow, P3 comes right off the table. I'm sure we'll all be watching with great interest.