Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Trendline of the ES

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For those of you who have been complaining about guest posts, take heart – – – all the contributors seem to have split. I personally like the guest posts, since they give me a breather – but oh well. Maybe there was a collective bear suicide held somewhere.

In spite of eight consecutive up days, as measured by some major indexes, the all-important /ES is still sporting a broken trendline {the nefarious thing about such an "event" is that the market can keep climbing, albeit on the opposite side of the aforementioned line).


Looking closer, you can see the past couple of days have been spinning tops – – there's a lot of tug-of-war going on at these new highs.


There is always – always – some kind of indicator, cycle, or gee-gaw in the world of technical analysis that can provide a person comfort that their point of view is the right one. I really try to avoid those games. I did get pretty excited about the Spiral Calender that Virginia Jim had been talking about, but as he himself wrote a couple of days ago, "1929-1987 Spiral Calendar Analog update. That's a wrap. DJIA closes above the predicted "final high" so the model is broken".  I am actually more of a "1937-1942 analog" kind of guy, but the information Jim was showing was intriguing. But I guess that's another cycle tool throw in the dustbin of history.

I also saw on EWI – – which has unashamedly jumped from the "P3 is on!" to "P2 is still going on" camp with distressing ease – – that they were presenting the Lunar Syndonic Cycle as the latest reason that the top would be in Real Soon Now. I'm fairly open minded, but when people roll out lunar eclipses, or astrology, or planetary movements, I just move on. I'm not that desperate to be convinced that the market is about to turn.

Anyway, that's probably it for Slope until tomorrow. The guests aren't contributing, and I'm burned out.


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I was going to title my post "Sigh", since that sums up how I'm feeling right now, but I know from experience that reading a blog where the writer is groaning about things is tiresome.

All the same, I'm in low spirits right now. I work very hard on my analysis. There are times that this analysis leads to a bonanza, and there are times – like now – where I feel like throwing darts would be more effective. It is profoundly unrewarding to spend countless hours analyzing, preparing, and trading with nothing to show for it.

Today, many assets tagged new highs (either lifetime or for the past year+) – – such as the Dow 30, the S&P, and gold.

Recently, it seems like any time a flicker of hope appears, the bulls just ramp things right back up again. The only silver lining in this entire scene is that the Russell, which is really my mainstay right now, isn't making new highs. And that's cold comfort indeed.


My principal fear is that late 2009 is becoming like late 1999. That is:

  • Everything is going up, irrespective of reason;
  • The less thoughtful the trader, the more money they make;
  • An insane final rush-up in price may be in store, and may last months

I know there was a sigh of relief when Kemal_1, who is perhaps the most respected participant here, declared P3 underway. But days like today are a grind.

I don't mean to sound whiny. You don't take your time to come here for that. But the market has been so discouraging and confounding. I've tried – – I've really tried – – to find good bull setups that I really want to hang on to, but I'm not into "momentum" investing (e.g. buying stuff that's already been bid-up huge in the hope that the bidding up will simply continue). It's not my style.

I'm going to take a break for a bit; if I get my head screwed on right and have more to say, I'll be back.

Russell 2000 – – – IWM (by Jeff)

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Just a quick observation, this is a weekly chart of IWM. Notice every time since June of 03 that IWM tested its 20 week m.a. (which is the blue line) a break of the 20 week was imminent and the target was the 50 and 70 week m.a's. Which then led to new highs. Which will lead to a test of the 20 week again and then a break of the 20 week down to the 50 and 70 week m.a.'s. and then new highs, etc. That is the rhythm of IWM. Then notice how the 50 and 70 week became downward sloping in January 08, then it became resistance and the place to short. Signalling the time to buy was done and shorting was the profitable trend.

Furthermore notice each test of the 20 week, MACD had crossed over down and the bounce off that test either made nominal new highs or fell short, which in turn gave way to further down side testing. Also of note is how MACD reset itself at much lower levels from where the test of the 20 week occured. Only once marked with the x in the price and MACD pane did the test not give way to price testing out the 50 & 70 week m.a.'s. Notice the difference MACD never crossed over down! 

Fast forward to the current day and notice the set up occurring. Looks like the same pattern is still holding true. I am looking for a few days above the 50d s.m.a to start getting short. I think $60.50 and higher is a prime place for shorting. I will wait for $53-$54 to cover, which is where the 50 week should have risen to.

I must also say, notice how the 50 week turned up in June of 03. I think that is the easiest way to spot the trend, it was clearly up and bought every time it hit that price. Currently the 50 week has just turned up and in my mind is signalling the start of a new up trend and when it does get tested it should be bought. In my mind I will keep applying this analysis in my trading until it ceases to work, but is has been working since 03 so why fight it.

For clarification the grey line is the 50 week and the red line is the 70 week. I use the 70 week for further indication of the trend. As you can see in the chart its been very reliable.Snapshot-40

Seabridge Gold

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I shorted Seabridge Gold (SA) this morning for a couple of reasons. One, I find the pattern to be very attractive…….


Two – and this is even more important to me – any stock that has to do with gold that has actually been weak lately must be very, very prone to more weakness. I mean – for the love of God – gold keeps lurching to prices never before seen in the history of man. If you own a company that has anything to do with gold that isn't likewise enjoying these tailwinds, something is wrong.