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It’s All Written in the Moon! (by Fujisan)

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OPX week is finally over and the bears are celebrating a "gravestone" doji of the weekly candle.  Now we are heading for a statistically bullish Thanksgiving week.  What will tomorrow bring?  Well, we don't know, but it looks like it's already written in the moon!

As many of you may be probably aware, the market tends to hit the high of the cycle around the new moon and the low around the full moon, and believe it or not, that's exactly what has been happening in the past many months.

INDU Daily Chart

As you can see, INDU has been going through a very distinctive bull/bear cycle in the past, almost in the clockwise, around the moon.  As this cycle has not been broken, I have no reason not to believe that the next turn day is going to be December 2, the next full moon.  The question is, how low would it go?  As Thanksgiving coming up next week, I wouldn't be surprised to see one more spike to the upside (yeah, we heard that so many times) next week.


SPY Daily Chart

Now, SPY started to look a lot like M pattern (i.e., double top) than the three drives pattern (that's exactly what I said last week – sorry, not much change since then).  I really don't have a preference one way or the other at this point, and I don't think it would make much difference from a swing trade standpoint.


IWM Daily chart

IWM is coming down to retest 200 SMA.  This is a great place to close your shorts and go long, if it holds.  


Moon Calendar

Here is a moon calendar for 2009 and 2010.  Mark your calendar!



EUR/USD update

EUR/USD is forming a triangle consolidation and we still don't have a confirmation one way or the other, although I'm still leaning toward an upside breakout with a target price of 1.52. 


GS as a Market Indicator

One of the stocks that I'm keeping track closely as a market indicator is GS.  GS has been a market leader for a while and seems to be completing abc consolidation pretty soon.  As GS is coming to retest 200 SMA, it would be a great place to close your shorts and go long once GS defends 200 SMA.  GS may be able to take the financial sector with it and rally toward early next year.


Happy Thanksgiving, Everybody! (in case I don't see you by next Thursday)……

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Three Peaks and Domed House
Option Strategies from Fujisan