I was going to title my post "Sigh", since that sums up how I'm feeling right now, but I know from experience that reading a blog where the writer is groaning about things is tiresome.
All the same, I'm in low spirits right now. I work very hard on my analysis. There are times that this analysis leads to a bonanza, and there are times – like now – where I feel like throwing darts would be more effective. It is profoundly unrewarding to spend countless hours analyzing, preparing, and trading with nothing to show for it.
Today, many assets tagged new highs (either lifetime or for the past year+) – – such as the Dow 30, the S&P, and gold.
Recently, it seems like any time a flicker of hope appears, the bulls just ramp things right back up again. The only silver lining in this entire scene is that the Russell, which is really my mainstay right now, isn't making new highs. And that's cold comfort indeed.
My principal fear is that late 2009 is becoming like late 1999. That is:
- Everything is going up, irrespective of reason;
- The less thoughtful the trader, the more money they make;
- An insane final rush-up in price may be in store, and may last months
I know there was a sigh of relief when Kemal_1, who is perhaps the most respected participant here, declared P3 underway. But days like today are a grind.
I don't mean to sound whiny. You don't take your time to come here for that. But the market has been so discouraging and confounding. I've tried – – I've really tried – – to find good bull setups that I really want to hang on to, but I'm not into "momentum" investing (e.g. buying stuff that's already been bid-up huge in the hope that the bidding up will simply continue). It's not my style.
I'm going to take a break for a bit; if I get my head screwed on right and have more to say, I'll be back.
