Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Tape Read (by Greg)

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(I'm putting up a longish post as I'm heading up the mountain to ski some; I'll loop back before the close – Tim)

What I would like to share in this post is a method I like to use
when trading the ES to manage risk. 
When I was trying to work out an approach for trading the ES, one of the
things I focused on was how do I control the risk?   For instance, in a lot of trading approaches there is
what might be called a natural stop.  In
the case of a 1-2-3 reversal the natural stop would be placed below the number
one point.  Now if you enter a
1-2-3 reversal after price clears the number 2 point the distance to you stop
is well… huge, which creates fear.  Here's an example of a "Natural" stop, which would be placed below the lowest arrow (point 1):

ES 2010-02-16_1926 

Point 2 is where the horizontal line is placed.

In the example above, I just cringe at the level of risk, which is probably greater then the likely move past the number 2 point. 

Using the following chart, I will try and explain the approach I use:

ES 2010-02-16_1952 2 

At point 1, I noticed volume was spooling up, but price had stopped going lower.  Although not shown that point also corresponded to a pivot point if after hours action was excluded.  What I do is enter with 2 ES, then try to scalp 1 or 2 points within that same bar.  My stop would be set about 1.25 points below my entry.  The exit for the scalp was near the red horizontal pivot just above.  Some times you can get a couple round trips.  The goal is to scalp enough points to cover your stop on the first two contracts, and then for an extra contract or two as well.

In this mornings example I was only able to get one scalp and only re-entered with one contract on the next bar.  On the 3rd bar over I picked up one more contract. 

If the consolidation allows the basic approach that I like to use goes something like this:

1) Enter with 1 contract. Stop about 1.25 points below entry

2) If price and volume are acting as expected, add 1 more ES.  Stop same place as first even if entry might be a little higher.

3) Scalp out near the far end of consolidation measuring bar.

4) re-enter with 2 contracts near low end of measuring bar range.

5) Depending on how price is acting I may only drop one ES on upper range on the this pass.

6) Now I'm carrying 1 core and will add 2 at the low end of the range.

7) I repeat the process and try to add to the core number of contracts held based upon my stop loss being covered. 

In the above example, I drew a Fib retracement from the initial high to the low.  The reason was a lot of traders play the retracement by shorting at the 50% line.  So my target was to drop my contracts at a 1/4 point below that point.   It was a perfect call.  Now I could have shorted there, but my read of price was the drop was going to be short lived, so instead I was looking for a place to go long which was at point 3.

Now that I had banked a number of points, I didn't worry about scalping, but rather focused on my next entries and exits.  What I did was target the keltner channel mid-line for an exit, and back in at the 5 min opening swing low.  From there my target was just below the 61.8% retracement line.  Up to that point I was batting 100%.  The one trade that stopped out was at point 4.  I shorted with a stop 1.25 points above, and price tagged me out.  I thought we would fall one more time, but I didn't clue in volume was greater then 20K per 3 min bar which often means the market makers tend to get out of the way, so I blew that one. 

I hope the takeaway is that the ES can be traded with decent risk management. That's it.  Have fun

Still About the Dollar (by Springheel Jack)

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(Note: I want to thank Slope's guest writers for jumping in and giving me a chance for some time off this week; I am so grateful, and so are Slopers! – Tim)

EUR/USD has now broken the broadening descending wedge that had confined
it for the last three weeks and is returning to the top of the
declining channel:

100217 EURUSD 60min Channel and Wedge

Given that this channel was already steep enough to bring EUR to
parity with USD within six to eight months, it always seemed more than
likely than not that that when this channel ultimately breaks, it will
break to the upside. The channel is declining by about half a cent per
week, so if we reach the top of the channel at the end of next week,
the target would be between 1.395 and 1.40.

As well as the broken and now resolving wedge we also have clear IHS
patterns on both RSI and MACD. These generally play out as you can see
from the others I have marked.

In the short term the stochs look toppy and we may well see a
retracement. An obvious target for that would be the broken wedge
trendline at between 1.37 and 1.371.

The SPX is also looking toppy on the 60min and I have marked in a
possible new channel and significant interior trendline that both
suggest that we may soon fall back to the bottom trendline of that
channel from the circa 1100 level:

100217 SPX 60min Poss New Channel

If we take a day or two to do that, then we may well fall back to
test the strong resistance now turned support level at 1080, though if
it happens faster, we could still fill Tuesday's opening gap at the
1075.51 level.

Now there is some talk that we might be starting a new major wave up
on SPX, which would be wave 5 of a bull market sequence. I don't buy
it. Quite apart from the doubtful economic and earnings prospects, and
the increasingly poor medium term outlook for the Euro, the wave 4
looks rather small to me for a wave 4 retracement, and I am looking at
many patterns that look as though they have much more downside coming.

It is worth noting though that if this is a bull market five wave
sequence, then that wave 4 did make a perfect 38.2% fib retracement of
wave 3 since July, and if that EURUSD channel breaks to the upside I
may have to reconsider my view, but in the interim this just looks like
a wave 2 retracement to me with an obvious target at 1110 for the 61.8%
fib retracement.

It is well worth remembering however that a wave 2 can and often
does retrace most of wave 1, the start of the EURUSD decline being a
classic example. SPX could go considerably higher than 1110, and
Fujisan was putting forward a compelling scenario suggesting 1130 last
weekend at slope which is well worth a look IMO.

I will be next shorting SPX again seriously only when EURUSD reaches
the top of the declining channel, or when it becomes clear that it
won't reach it.

Another interesting chart that is well worth a look is gold:

100217 Gold Channel and HS Pattern

Gold is in a strong declining channel and is rising fast towards the
channel top, and also the broken neckline of a sloping H&S
indicating to the 960 level. The upswing target is about 1140, and that
should see gold start back towards the bottom of the channel. It should
reach the upswing target on the next EURUSD push upwards and it looks a good short from
there.

This Ain’t No Bull!

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It's Brian Johnson again and here's a video on the current state of the markets and what to look for as we push forward. The Indices broke above the bear flags we were watching in the last video and are headed for some very strong overhead resistance levels. These bigger overhead levels, if they are broken, will more than likely lead to some bear covering and could push these markets up to the 1115 mark on the SPX. My overall view is still that of a correction so I remain neutral to bearish in the longer term.