Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

UNG? Seriously?

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OK, poor old UNG, the natural gas ETF, seems to be good at doing one thing – going down in price. It has done so quite steadily for the entire year.

I have, however, as of today, entered a not-that-large long position in it. UNG has a mind of its own; it doesn't really seem to much care what stocks or energy is doing (strangely enough). It is its own beast.

My stop is at 8.10, so I think the risk is pretty small. And, yes, yes, I know about all the contango disadvantages and all that hoo-ha. This simply seems like a mildly interesting long idea for the next few weeks.

0308-ung

What are the Best Charts for Gauging Extremes?

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Just about the only thing I don't like about my beloved ProphetCharts is its lack of some of the sentiment and momentum oscillators that I've heard so much about. StockCharts.com – which is a company I've long admired (shout out to Chip Anderson!) seems to excel at these data sets.

What I'd like Slopers to share with me and everyone else here is their favorite charts for gauging market extremes. Simply stated, I want to know what kind of chart would have compelled me, back on February 5th, to cover all my shorts and go long!

The Simpler The Better! I have no interest in the combination of twelve technical studies would have pointed this out. I'd much rather see a single, simple line graph that oscillates cleanly.

Full URLs are appreciated, and please don't refrain from sharing a chart simply because you think it's too obvious or that everyone knows about it. Thank you.

Wondering Out Loud: High Short Interests and Market Psychology (Leisa)

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The stock market has been lurching forward with surprising force. For armchair economists, one looks about and can only head scratch about the anomalous behavior of the market v. 'reality.' While the market is a discounting mechanism, I will go to my grave believing that it is as perfect at discounting as a teenage boy is at restraint.

Marc Faber's cogent observation that economic reality and the market's perception of economic reality are two different things was an important "AHA" experience for me.

Another important quote that I found in going through my blog archives was one given to me by a fellow blogger from Bill Cara's site. It was attributed to George Soros, though I've never verified that:

“Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited."

G. C. Selden writes in his book, Psychology of the Stock Market, the following:

The main point of their argument is that the state of mind of a man short of the market is radically different from the state of mind of one who is long. Their whole study, in such a conversation, is the mental attitude of those interested in the market. If a majority of the volatile class of in-and-out traders are long, many of them will hasten to sell on any sign of weakness and a decline will result. If the majority are short, they will buy on any development of strength and an advance may be expected."

And that leads me to this:

Is it possible that 100% of the IWM is really short? Forty percent of the SPY? If these numbers are true, is it any wonder then that we have these surges of buying on moderate strength? To my amateur eye, these high levels of short interest preclude a major correction until they are reduced. However, I do find these numbers a bit troublesome, as I'm having a difficult time corroborating any by the SPY (FINVIZ reports 44%).  I cannot find numbers for the others.  The numbers (should one be able to find credible numbers) bear watching.

(Editor's Note: I've never used shortsqueeze, but I find these figures in the table above very, very suspicious. I could be wrong, but I think it's impossible the entire float of IWM is short. Looking at this link, which is specific to IWM, this site cites a high price of IWM of $512.70, which is grossly wrong. So it could well be that the site is just packed with absolutely crap data; this is no reflection on Leisa, but I'd appreciate hearing comments about shortsqueeze.com and if it's worthwhile or not – – Tim).

Oscar Thoughts

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I want to humbly thank everyone who participated in my poll this weekend. I am so, so grateful to this community. I have an adoration of Slopers that is borderline embarrassing, and the fact I know there is a group of sharp, inventive, and understanding people to whom I can occasionally turn as a resource is a source of profound comfort. Thank you so much.

Since I've been so much wrenching soul-baring lately, I thought I'd turn the dial a bit and just do a quick, fun post. I watched the Oscars last night, and I really enjoyed them. I've always been a big movie fan, although the kinds of movies to which I am drawn don't tend to be the most popular. I tend to like movies that leave me feeling changed, even in a small way, when I leave the theater. I don't want to be entertained; I want to be altered.

In spite of that, I had a passing acquaintance with most of the nominees. Here are a few thoughts on last night:

+ I am grateful to Alec Baldwin who is living proof that, no matter how handsome you are, the curse of the middle age spare tire leaves almost no man untouched.

+ Jeff Bridges' capturing of the Best Actor award is marvelous. I didn't see his movie, but – first off – The Dude Abides. Second, he's a family man, and as a traditional and sentimental sap, that appeals to me. He's been married 33 years and is a dad to three daughters.

+ Although, at the same time, it was kind of a cruel irony that at the moment they mentioned his successful marriage, Robin Williams (divorced twice) was sitting right behind him. You can kind of see Robin Williams wince and bow his head when the thirty-three years is cited. Ouch.

+ I think it's marvelous that Kathryn Bigelow won for Best Director, but for Pete's sake, did they really have to play Helen Reddy's "I Am Woman" as she walked off the stage, just because she's the first female director to be so honored? Give me a break! If Hollywood wants to pat itself on the back for being feminist, then don't make a big stink about the fact she's a female! She's a director! Hypocrites.

+ You probably saw the bit where the celebrities were singing the praises, one by one, of each nominee for best actor and best actress. The most awkward one was when Oprah was assuring Gabourey Sidibe of the many, many wonderful roles that were waiting her in movies to come. Look, I don't mean to be cruel about this at all, but this actress is very, very large. That's perfect for Precious. It doesn't work so well when they're trying to figure out the cast for most new movies.

+ I guess Jim Cameron was surprised to receive neither Best Director nor Best Picture, but at least most of the technical categories were grabbed by Avatar. It's nice to see the nerds win.

+ I am *so* going to watch Logorama now. I never had even heard of it before.

+ When country singer Ryan Bingham was on the screen, my very young daughter immediately got interested and said, "He's cool. I like him." Uh-oh. Men with beards and ponytails might not work for Dad, sweetie.

+ So when did they drop the politically correct, "And the Oscar goes to…….." and revert to the crueler and more honest "The winner is……..". I guess at least they don't say "The losers are…...." and name off all the nominees with one exception.

+ Anna Kendrick is really, really cute. Really.

+ I thought it was awfully cool that Christopher Plummer played Tolstoy and also has General Chang from Star Trek VI on his resume. I pointed this important fact out to my beloved son.

+ Since people seem to be required to say the full, official name of the movie, it was pretty brilliant of the makers of Precious to name the film "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire", since they had to say all twelve syllables every stinking time they mentioned it. If I make a movie, I'll be sure to call it something like "Slope of Hope – The Greatest Film Every Made in Human History", just so the presenters have to cite the whole thing.

OK, that's enough.