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ES Declining Channel and Trading Ranges (by Springheel Jack)

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(Editor's Note: Umm, not sure if my computer is cursed, but I'm not able to see any comments, even though I see they are accumulating somehow; sorry for the lack of NEW POSTs today…….)

Everyone trading ES at the moment should have a look at this chart IMO:

100624 ES 60min Declining Channel and Ranges

I'm expecting that we may well see a rise on ES to range and channel resistance at 1084ish this afternoon. That will look like a solid short, and it that resistance is broken, it will then look like a solid long for a good bounce to at least 1101.5.

As an aside, among the strange things you very rarely see are a strong rising channel on EURUSD at the same time as a strong declining channel on ES, but it seems that pigs are growing wings today. This could be positive divergence, maybe, but I wouldn't put much faith in it after the bearish technical carnage this morning:

100624 EURUSD 60min Rising Channel

Disqus Wreck

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Hi Folks,

For the umpteenth time, it seems the Disqus system is down.

I've got something different coming. I'm not really going to talk about it now, but I assure you, Disqus isn't going to be a permanent solution here.

Anyway, I'm ungodly busy between trading and family members, so it's kind of a gummed-up day for me; I'm sorry the comment system is having trouble.

Again.

Looking For ES Interim Low Here (by Springheel Jack)

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Overnight the strong range support level at 1084 was broken, and ES is
clearly still trading within the declining channel that I posted
yesterday:

100624_ES_60min_Declining_Channel

We can now see significant and growing positive divergence on the RSI
and MACD on the ES 60min chart though, and I'm doubtful about reaching
either the next range support level at 1070.5 and the S2 daily pivot
also there at 1070.83.

EURUSD broke out of that declining channel yesterday and broke back up
into the range above. The same positive divergences that we see on ES
can be seen on the EURUSD chart, with EURUSD about a day ahead, which is
in itself another very significant positive divergence IMO:

100624_EURUSD_60min_Breaking_Upwards

The Vix on the 60min chart broke just above the downtrend resistance
trendline I had drawn on it yesterday and then slid down an invisible
declining trendline there. After a careful look I've redrawn the
original trendline and am happy that it is valid. That is a key line in
the sand for today, any break above the line would look very bearish for
equities:

100624_Vix_60min_Downtrend_Resistance

We are at the crossroads now in my view. A break much below here and the
recent rally will look finished, and a retest of the lows would become
high probability. The levels I will be watching today are as follows:

  • ES – Break up with confidence through range resistance at 1084 –
    Bullish
  • ES – Break up with confidence through the channel upper trendline
    (currently 1089.5) – Very bullish
  • EURUSD – Break down with confidence through lower range support at
    1.2255 – Bearish
  • Vix – Break up with confidence over declining resistance at 28 –
    Very bearish