Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Heartbreaking Chart of Staggering Genius

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At the risk of making a total ass of myself – – – which is endemic to doing this blog, I suppose – – I offer the following update to my world-famous WAG, originally posted on April 25th:

Whenever we see any weakness in the market, some Slopers have declared my WAG dead. Pish-posh! The WAG is alive and well.

What got me thinking about this was this post from my good friend Serge, the mercenary dictator of ETF Corner. He emailed me this particular image from the post which, on its surface, projects that the /ES will get back to about 1170 before turning down again. He has confirmed privately with me that we are right about at that dotted line now.

With the utmost respect to my Parisian friend, instead of being between "7" and "8", I think we're between "9" and "10". Observe my own labeling, lovingly crafted in the fine calligraphy you've all grown to respect and adore (as always, click on it to see a bigger version):

0603-sergeredux
I've done two big things different than Serge. ONE, I've put in my own labeling, and TWO – – importantly – – I've taken into account the "X" factor. To explain:

"8" should have been a rocket launch to 1131, and "9" should have been an ease back to the neckline. Instead, "8" was completely limp-wristed, and "9" fell 21.25 points farther than it should have.

When I initially did this drawing, I used this absolute delta to project a target for "10" at 1150, but subsequent to this drawing, I used a percentage instead, and I came up with a target of 1143 instead. This just happens to correspond beautifully with the January high.

It also conforms with the entire WAG scenario beautifully, in addition to the Light That Guides Us All, which is my 1937-1942 analog.

The ideal scenario would be for us to shoot to 1143 (plus or minus a few points), stall, and then start falling. I think Serge's analog with China is brilliant, but with these two important modifications, I think the top before 2010's big plunge is much closer than he postulated.

Just In Case

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Tomorrow morning, if the market reacts bullishly to the jobs report, I'd really prefer not to be caught with my pants around my ankles. It would make technical sense for the /ES to bust above 1107 and hit the target of 1140 (which we've all been anticipating for what seems like forever). I am long SPY with a position that represents a 1:4 long:short ratio in my portfolio, but it beats the heck out of 0:4 in case we have a rally.

0603-es
 

Engage!

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I don't do this very much anymore, but as a treat (or exploding cigar) for Slopers, here are the stocks I just shorted along with their stop prices. Current portfolio: 184 shorts; 0 longs. May the Great Ursa in the sky smile upon me tomorrow at 5:30 a.m. PST.

ACL………148.48
ADBE………35.41
AIV………22.06
ALV………53.32
AM………24.91
ARCC………14.10
BEXP………19.53
BPO………15.69
CBE………50.66
CEG………37.37
CHK………24.95
CHS………12.57
CLB………145.75
CMC………16.36
CMI………73.47
CNQ………37.26
CNQR………44.58
CNX………37.68
COG………37.45
CPHD………18.96
CYH………41.58
DLR………60.78
DVN………66.88
EIX………33.98
EQT………43.32
FST………30.04
HK………20.82
HP………43.53
IBM………132.00
INFY………59.98
JLL………81.28
KEG………10.96
KO………54.21
LINE………26.03
LTD………28.03
MED………34.60
MF………8.10
MIC………15.15
MON………52.55
MTB………81.87
NBR………21.41
NFLX………119.51
NG………7.46
PAL………3.71
PAY………21.61
PRAA………72.22
REXX………11.22
RSG………30.43
RTP………48.88
SAN………65.89
SSRI………18.66
SU………33.37
SWK………61.34
VCI………36.75
VLTR………25.01
VOD………20.65
WAT………71.70
WLL………89.13
WLT………78.52
XTEX………10.33