Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Midway

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Goatmug has done an absolutely fantastic post, but it's quite lengthy, and I don't want to publish it until after the close so people can get it the attention it deserves.

In the meantime, I'll just offer this one comment – – we're dead in the middle of the "WAG Rise". People were really questioning the WAG, but it remains intact, albeit under the forces of greater gravity than I imagined (that is, the selling pressure didn't allow a breakout from the IHS, so it's been trading like mush).

I think our situation can be expressed with one simple graph, shown below. The bears are facing about 500 points of Dow risk right now. I have felt the pain of this risk lately, having been stopped out of several dozen positions this morning and having a pretty bad day yesterday. But the risk to the bulls is about four times greater.

I think even if we bears have to suffer through another 500 points, it will serve one purpose and one purpose only: to make the fall that much greater. I remain short, and I intend to add more positions today. Yes, tomorrow morning represents risk, but the uncertainty about the jobs report also represents opportunity. I am embracing the opportunity and facing the risk.

0603-risk

A Leading US Market Gives a Hint – QQQQ

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NFTRH87 talked about the Dow's as yet un-triggered MACD lines. A
subsequent email update noted the same in the HUI (along with
characteristics that positively distinguish that index). But here is
the Cube, attempting to join other leading markets (remember, they tend
to lead to the downside as well) like the China FXI in MACD trigger up
status.

Qqqq

Now of course, this was all in the script. Risk is high
for bears in the short term. Intermediate term? Not so much I think.
It is time to begin thinking about the nature of this top… will a
right side shoulder form here for a nice bearish summer?

First we
have to determine whether or not the MACD signal is going to become
actualized in the form of RSI breaking above resistance, while the noted
price trend line is taken out. A nice, neat 62% mini-crash retrace to
the noted resistance zone would be nice.

The caveat for the bulls
is that volume thus far stinks on this little hope expression and trend
has not been broken. The onus is on dem bullz to prove they can even
get a decent rebound going. But they 've got to start somewhere and we
are one by one, starting to get some MACD signals. The nature of the
bulls' progress (and the dumb money's sentiment) will go a long way
toward determining when/if NFTRH re-establishes short positions. Right
now, it looks like just a matter of time.

こういうわけで私はこの週短い在庫がほしいと思わなかった

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Earlier
this week my wallet and passport was stolen out of my Japanese sleeping
pod, right now I'm having a bit of a problem finding a way home. To
make some extra cash to pay for a new passport the Colonel offered to
wrestle an orangutan at a nearby carnival.

The orangutan’s trainer was
offering 500 yen to anyone who could pin the animal. The match was
pretty brutal, and it was obvious early on that the Colonel didn't
stand a chance. Twenty minutes into the match he picked up a Japanese
folding chair and slammed the orangutan over the head. The trainer
immediately disqualified him, and refused to give him the 500 yen. To
make matters worse we actually had to pay another 2000 yen to replace
the chair.

I
logged on to my computer to see if I could wire money or something, the
ATM machines here have this crazy Japanese writing all over them and I
have no idea if I'm withdrawing money or playing a game of Pachinko.

While
online I checked out a few charts, and here is one that has been
keeping me on the long side the past week and a half. Worden's T2108 chart (which plots the percentage of stocks above their 40-day moving averages); is
telling me we have been very oversold, and I do not like to short when
this chart is below 20. This sucker even went below 10 on May 20th. I would really like this chart to get out of the oversold area before I start shorting heavily again.


T2108

I
sold most of my longs on Wednesday. Thursday/Friday, if we rally up above 1100 and hang out without breaching 1110 I might start getting some short
positions.