Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Doe-Eyed Optimism
As a gentle reminder on my long-term view of things, I do not join those with their hands quietly clasped in their hands who believe the most dramatic plunge we could have is a 1.5% drop to 1300 on the S&P.
I am looking at a vicious multi-year bear market that takes us below 600 on the S&P and completely transforms the government of this country and the position of the United States in the world. Permanently.
What we're about to enter isn't a girl's tea party, and iPads and Zynga aren't going to save us. Nor is color.com, for that matter.
Bear Country
As regular readers know, I'm traveling extensively this week, so Slope is not as slopey as usual. But in a nutshell, I am totally short the market with 67 different positions, and I'm looking for more.
I'm kind of stunned at how ungodly bullish folks have become, and for a contrarian, that's pretty encouraging. I also notice troll activity is taking an uptick, which tells me that some frustrated bulls are starting to take their frustrations out on their betters.
Good luck to faithful Slopers around the world. I'll do a real post when I can find the time.
Same Place, But Twenty Months of Change
Let's compare August 2009……….
……with today…….
Changes:
+ Internationally-famous Mime Shirt instead of metrosexual pink shirt;
+ Mole isn't making bunny ears behind me;
+ Total stranger taking picture had steadier hands back in 2009;
+ I was a lot more optimistic about a market that was about to fall to pieces back then! But then again, I think we all were. So, a little worse for the wear, but still fighting the good fight.
Opex Monday (by Springheel Jack)
It's OPEX week, and that may well hold up equities, which have frankly been looking very weak. There's some reason to think that Friday's lows were significant though, as SPX held above the 1319 gap, which Pug is calling a gap of recognition. Here it is on the SPX 15min chart:
Here's the rather weaker NDX 15min chart for comparison. What's worth noting about both these charts is the trading zone, held within the black box on SPX and the red declining channel on NDX. A break up from these zones on both would be very bullish:
The Russell 2000 has reached the main support trendline from the summer lows last year. This is an internal trendline, but it has been the main support trendline since September last year:
Vix has been chopping around uncertainly within the closed gap zone. I can see some trendline justification for a move back just over 20 to establish a declining channel though I wouldn't put any money on it:
I'm watching copper carefully this morning. Copper has a big move up last week that didn't carry equities with it. It was showing signs of topping on Friday and has since retraced to a possible lower channel trendline. At the time of writing copper has broken down through that at support is at 445.5 and 438. A big retracement on copper would most likely mean further downside on equities:
I have mixed feelings about direction today and tomorrow and I'll be looking mainly at the two trading ranges on SPX and NDX. A break up from those ranges would be extremely bullish, and a break down could potentially be very bearish indeed, though I'd then be looking at the SPX daily 20 SMA at 1309 and serious support in the 1300 – 1305 zone.
