Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Sotheby’s and Bull Markets

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I read a very interesting article this week illustrating how bull manias were closely correlated with Sotheby's stock price (ticker symbol BID). The article quite convincingly illustrated that the late 80s takeover mania, the dot-com boom/bust, and the real estate/credit collapse all lined up nicely with auction insanity and record-high art prices.

The thrust of the article was that the present mania is located in China, where vases and paintings are fetching unheard-of bids. The implication, naturally, is that China is heading for a cliff. And, as past examples of have, Sotheby's can lose about a third of its value in one session when speculation in art ceases.

Below are the charts of the S&P (blue) and Sotheby's (black).

0407-bid

Pull Back (by George Rahal)

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Prices have halted their advance over the last few trading days, with many indexes near their February highs, and some above. The latter (first two charts below) actually give a clearer visual clue as to why to expect a pull back. The third chart has a zone of where my analysis suggests a pull back would end on the S&P 500; either at a slightly higher high from the most recent 15 point reaction, or back to the 1300s for prices to form an inverse H&S. However, I would not sell (short) because there is a possibility of an upside breakout.

All charts are in 30 min bars.

Blog 4.7.11
Blog2 4.7.11

Blog3 4.7.11