Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Bearskin Rugs (by Springheel Jack)

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I was joking on twitter yesterday morning that the short-term bearish setup I was looking at looked very tempting, even if people were having to climb over piles of bearskin rugs to get to the screens to see it. Needless to say there was a report early in the day that the Greek are very close to finalising their no-default default, and both EURUSD and ES broke up hard to trash that bearish setup. This market remains in a strong uptrend and JBTFD is still the order of the day.

It still looks early to think about a top on EURUSD and GBPUSD at the moment. I've been posting my big picture USD chart and the obvious target is a hit above 76.72 in mid to late February. I can't see any reason to doubt at the moment that we will see that level hit, and at that point we will see if that rising channel on USD can hold:

120208 USD Daily Possible IHS Forming

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The Grind Higher Continues….For Now

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As you all know I have had a bearish tone since mid-January.

The market had moved into a short-term overbought state, excessive optimism had pushed into the market and seasonality had entered a historically bearish.

And over the past several weeks all of the aforementioned have pushed further and further into a bearish state.

But, the bulls have yet to waver and the grind continues. Since December 19th the S&P 500 (SPY) has climbed over 12% without pause.

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Pushmi-Pullyu

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Well, the market presents a mixed bag – – some major indexes look bullish (which explains why I finally relented by actually BUYING some stocks, which is probably a huge short signal in itself) and others look bearish. Let's take a look at them, in bullish/bearish order:

The NASDAQ Composite pushed above its long-term resistance line late last week, and it's been inching higher ever since. This chart is bullish, period.

0207-bullishCOMPQ

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (the Dow 30) likewise beat its "bin Laden high" from last May 2nd.

0207-bullishINDU

The Apple-powered NASDAQ 100 has been on a huge tear since Thanksgiving, and, as with the broader Composite, is straight-up bullish.

0207-bullishNDX

The strongest argument for the bearish case (which could be badly damaged by a single "good" headline at any moment) is the EUR/USD.

0207-bearishEURO

It turn, the $HUI Gold Bugs Index is poised for a beautiful fall (provided it stays under that centerline).

0207-bearishHUI

The Russell 2000 is right up against resistance, and this is a point where it could easily slip back to the high 700s.

0207-bearishRUSSELL

The Broker/Dealer Index, $XBD, may have double-topped.

0207-bearishXBD

Lastly, the NYSE Summation is a screaming sell right now. Look how it's configured compared to Spring 2010, shown on the left, just before its big tumble.

0207-bearishSUMMATION

So your guess is as good as mine at this point. At this moment, I'm 50% in cash, and of the 50% in equity positions, 25% is long and 75% is short. It's pretty much all about the Euro at this point, folks. We are all FOREX traders.