I went long the symbol SMH to take advantage of this:
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Eight Months of Plunging Miners
Possible Bounce Setup (by Springheel Jack)
SPX made a lower low yesterday and finally tested the 1340 support level. There has been no conviction break as yet. While that remains the case, and with the proviso that I'm expecting more downside and any bounce here will therefore be counter-trend, I'm thinking we may well see a relief bounce here. On the ES 15min chart the falling wedge I posted yesterday has broken up, with the low yesterday slightly below the wedge support level that I gave yesterday morning. With the decline yesterday afternoon a promising W bottom setup has also formed. On the next move over 1345 the pattern target is 1357.25, and we may well see that today or tomorrow, though the chances of seeing that will drop significantly if ES breaks below rising support at 1338 this morning:
Free-Floating Anxiety
I am, by nature, a worrywart. Sometimes this is good, and sometimes it is bad. When I was father to very young children, my ability to walk into a room and instantly assess any potential dangers was very valuable. As a trader, though, my worrisome nature can sometimes be costly.
A good example over the past few months has been with miners (symbol GDX), which I have mentioned something like fifty-thousand times this year. I was very vocal about my bearishness on the miners last year. I got a lot of nasty emails about how loony I was to think such a think. Precious metals kooks can be a passionate bunch, and they were firmly convinced not only of gold's imminent lift to $5,000 per ounce but, naturally, the value of miners following right along.
Well, my bearishness on miners was bold, visionary……….and poorly executed. I have worried myself out of that position countless times. In retrospect, simply shorting the holy hell out of miners and then just updating stops from time to time woudl have been a very profitable approach. Instead, I've tried to capture nickels and dimes along the way, sometimes winning, sometimes losing, and – in the end – making dramatically less than I ever would have just staying put.
Reviewing the Macro ‘Play’
There are signs in the recent jobs and ISM reports that the previously inflated economy is decelerating. Late last week, the clown running JP Morgan said stupid things about the smart [read: talented] people he has running his high risk trading operations. Europe is of course front and center as it continues to fall apart, with Gilts and Bunds rising on ‘safe haven’ buying and the bonds (debt) of Greece and other Euro basket cases declining toward their value, which is less than zero.
The precious metals appear to be watching for signs of outwardly promoted QE policy. But NFTRH has remained cautious on the timing of this pending a crack in the US stock market, so let’s review the big index.
