I don't like the looks of this structure. It does not look like the type of strong accumulation that turns into a large trend. Look at the 3yr SPX chart. Every major pullback that lasted took off strong for a couple of weeks at least (see lines drawn in just above the volume mirroring the trend). Any that were choppy resulted in new lows.
There is also strong evidence for the market's "QE/No QE" tendency over the past few years. The markets in general haven't done well without the Fed constantly priming the pump. Also, the "weak" months of the year have certainly held up strongly the last few years. May to the end of September have been dominated by selling.
Add to that that multiple indices have rising wedges in them and that we are currently at the top of the wedge/channel with a strongly overbought McOsc and it would appear a pullback is imminent in the next week or two, possibly to new lows though that seems unlikely. If 1310 goes, I'll be seriously considering it.
Of course, since anything can happen, the uptrend could continue, but I think the evidence weighs against it. One major difference between the last two summer sell offs and now that could be a positive or negative is that 2010 and 2011 were very bearish during their choppy ranges while this June's chop doesn't seem to have the same "the world is about to come apart" mentality to it. Either that is positive and the market is going to chop/base some more or this is a negative sign that the market is not quite bearish enough to maintain the bottom yet. Good trading to all.
