Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

TLT Retests Major Support (by Springheel Jack)

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I'm leaning bearish for the rest of the year, though very much with an open mind that it could go the other way. One thing I've been watching and writing about as very important for the bear case for the remainder of 2012 is what's happening on TLT. Major support is at 123.5 to 124, and that was tested last Thursday. TLT bounced there, formed an IHS that never broke up, and then retested the lows yesterday. If we are to see a resumption of the uptrend on bonds, this is the likely place to see that happen. If support fails however then TLT will most likely fall considerably further (targets on the chart below), and that will give a considerable following wind to equity bulls. The strength of this support level is best seen on the 60min chart:

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Russell Analog (by TnRevolution)

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Good evening Slope!  I wanted to take a look tonight at a market structure within the Russell 2000 that I am tracking.  As you know, the Russell has yet to break its 2011 high, diverging from SPX.  Let's take a look at how the Russell formed its 2011 top, and see if there is anything we can gain from it.

Below is a daily chart of the Russell.  Notice the three key peaks I have noted.  Peak 1 is the ultimate high that was formed.  After the high, there are two additional key peaks that were made.  Peak 2 came close to testing the highs, but failed.  It then made a slight retracement, before quickly moving back up to form Peak 3.  Peak 3 also failed to reclaim Peak 2.  When the trendline breaks, connecting the June '11 lows through July '11 lows, a collapse ensues. 

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