The most important chart for direction today is the SPX 60min chart. SPX bounced at short term channel support on Tuesday and has been sort of crawling up it since. If it gaps under it at the open, which looks likely, then we might see a retest but the chances are that it would follow through on the downside soon. I'd be expecting a retest of the 1440 pivot today or tomorrow:
On ES we now have a technical M top which has broken below pattern support overnight. It isn't a pretty pattern, but the target in the 1433 area fits with a test of the 1440 SPX pivot area:
There really isn't much positive RSI divergence from anything overnight, except for oil which is suggesting a bounce here. I'm expecting more downside afterwards and am looking for a short term rally to establish a declining resistance trendline that doesn't look like an arrow pointing straight down. Significant resistance areas around 92.5 and 94.3:
EURUSD has now broken under 1.30 but I have nothing to say here that I didn't say yesterday morning. Instead I'll show the GBPUSD chart that is suggesting that more downside for GBPUSD (and by extension EURUSD) looks likely
I like the idea of some sort of bounce into opex tomorrow, but I'm not seeing a lot to support that right here. if SPX tests 1440 today then that is a decent level to expect some kind of a rally. On balance I'd be expecting more downside after that rally but it's worth noting that 1440 SPX is my first retracement target after the channel resistance hit last on Friday
My wife was unwell overnight. Just a stomach bug of some kind I think but I didn't get a lot of sleep. As a result I probably won't be around much until late in the session as I'm badly in need of a nap. I ran out of time this morning and am posting late so I will be posting the last three charts for this posts on twitter at @shjackcharts after I finish this post.
