My Balloons Have Not Yet Been Taken

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So far, so good; the three days this week have each produced nice profits, although the trauma of the past four years keeps me somewhat on the defensive (although I haven't touched a long position in quite some time now). The big risk this week was the FOMC, and they are out of our hair until December 12th (huzzah!), so now all we've got to worry about is AAPL.

It's quite simple, really. If AAPL blows away estimates and somehow creates a zooming stock price, that'll probably do some damage to the bear case; on the other hand, if AAPL disappoints like GOOG did last week, all holy hell is going to break lose.

Starting with crude oil, which has been a favorite of mine since it was in the mid-90s, it has painted out a terrific pattern that has it poised for a drop into the upper 70s.


The ES chart has become terrifically exciting, because it has broken both of its supporting trendlines, after having utterly failed to break above resistance last week (thank Jesus).


Looking closer, you can see that – – funny enough – – the top of the market came right after QEinfinityh was announced, and we've been limp-dicking it ever since. The green tinted areas indicate the importance of my lovely trendlines, since the price has been frantically trying to claw its way back to the "right" side of things, failing miserably in each instance.


Our dear old friend the miners, too, have been getting squishy. I'm disappointed in myself for shucking off my Miner Bear persona last month, merely because it edged above its Fibonacci. A target of 46.25 seems sensible here.


There are several hundred more Dow points between present levels and support. Of course, it doesn't necessarily mean we'll fall that far; just look what happened last time, early in June.


I was a tiny bit nervous Tuesday night at the hammer on the Russell 2000, but today's bearish engulfing pattern pretty much kicks the hammer right in its hammer-nuts; this trendline is broken.


The S&P 500 is tantalizing close to breaking its trendline. Maybe we won't even have to wait for AAPL to resolve this, but if Thursday comes and goes without a break, it's really up to our friends in Cupertino to break this wedge (and I'm sure they are unaware of this important responsibility).


Closing with the QQQ, this remains a fantastically well-formed and well-behaved pattern, and my oft-stated target of 62.50 stands.



Good night, and good luck.