Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Update on SPX/VIX 2012 Complacency Odds (by SB)

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My post of February 28th of this year gave an 80% chance of
another spike on the VIX this year. While that scenario threatened to occur
mid-year, volatility subsided and has remained relatively quiet this year.
However, with only three trading days left, I thought I'd provide an update on
this topic.

The Weekly chart below shows the VIX
pushing up against a major resistance level around
20.00. A close and hold above 20.00 may produce such a
spike…if not this year, then in (possibly early) 2013.

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Japan’s Nikkei Approaching Major Resistance Levels (by SB)

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The Weekly chart below shows that Japan's Nikkei E-mini
Futures Index is just below major resistance levels. We may start to
see choppy (and potentially volatile) trading from today's (Wednesday's) high of 10390 up to
10900-11300ish until it either pulls back or continues upwards.

As you
can see, it's had great difficulty staying above the 10390 level since the index
began its rally after the lows of 2008/09. We'll see whether the government's
money-printing program continues to translate into a continued equity push up,
in spite of these technical limitations/constraints.

The Looming Cliff (by Springheel Jack)

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I read on Bloomberg this morning that the Federal Government will reach the borrowing limit on December 31st, and that Geithner will start using extraordinary measures to finance the federal deficit into early 2013. A reminder that unless some sort of bipartisan deal is reached in  the next couple of months, the Federal Government will start to shut down due to lack of funds. 

It did strike me though that a possible alternative for Obama is to write off some of the large stock of US treasuries now held by the Fed. I wonder if that would be legal without congressional approval? It could extend the Federal government's borrowing ability considerably further, though it would tear aside the thin fiction that at some point the Fed will release these back into the market, and hasn't been printing money in part to finance these huge deficits. 

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The Five-Thousand Dollar Mouse Click

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Well, today's "action" on the market – – if you want to call it that – – hasn't changed anything I have to say one iota, so instead of wasting my time and yours re-hashing what I've said so many times recently, I will share with you my painful tale from this morning. It sucks out loud, but I've built an audience by being open, so here we go:

1226-tacksYesterday was, of course, Christmas, and my family hosted a banquet here for the extended family. It went from 1 in the afternoon until past 10 at night, and everything went smoothly. Lots of food, folks, and fun – – sort of like McDonald's, except with much better cuisine and less risk of diabetes.

Since I went to bed late (for me, at least) for two nights in a row, I failed to get up automatically at 5:30 a.m. as I usually do. I actually woke up at 5:15, glanced at the clock, went to sleep again, and woke up at 6:51.

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