The Great Promotion

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May, 2012:  “Gary = Dumb Investor”, which was a memorable comment
response (among many) to the SeekingAlpha version of this bullish
article:  Dumb Money Sold in May and Went Away

Presently, I am an “idiot” and a “doomer” for being ‘risk vs. reward’ bearish on the US markets.

Excerpted from NFTRH 225:

The Great Rotation Promotion

Promotion (Dictionary.com): something devised to publicize or advertise a product, cause, institution, etc.

The title implies a bear writer about to write bearish things.  I get
it.  I guess I am a bear writer now because I can no longer be a bull
writer.  That is because my b/s detector is calibrated to its most
sensitive setting and usually begins sounding early.  The b/s detector
went off early last May and the bullish analysis had to endure through a
very volatile summer.  Now it is the same, in reverse.


But SPX 1550+ is our plan, not that of most come-lately bulls.  We
staked it out months ago and it appears to be coming about.  Further, it
is coming about with signs – like the ‘boots on the ground’ evidence of
the semiconductor equipment upturn, creeping ‘jobs’ stabilization and
generally good corporate results during earnings season.  That is the
reality.

What is also a reality is a Federal Reserve doing its best to
backstop and promote all of this, as normal inflation indicators have
not yet registered.  They literally have free license to print money and
try to promote bubbles.  The “Great Rotation” story is being
manufactured in the media and it is the perfect accompaniment to the
current sentiment-fueled rally toward very important targets.  It also
raises an interesting question.

If low interest rates have been a key to what lame economic
recovery is in play now, what would the rising interest rates implied by
the “Great Rotation” out of bonds and into stocks bring about? 

We’ll follow up that question with more questions; with a defection
by the public would the Fed then begin to buy bonds of all types and
durations? Shorter-term Treasuries, investment grade corporates, junk
and municiples to go along with its stated operation in MBS and
long-term Treasuries?

Basically that is a Fed out of control and on steroids, bloating
itself up until one day it just bursts.  Perhaps the tin foil hat
brigade will find the answer in the $Trillions in buying power of US
retirement accounts.  There is chatter about the government overseeing
these accounts for the benefit of its citizens.

More likely, bond revulsion to the benefit of stocks would serve to
expedite the end of the now 4-year-old bull market.  The story seems to
fit nicely with the big picture technicals and the idea that a bull
market will use the weirdest stories to suck in the final holdouts prior
to termination.

This is a cyclical bull market, so it does not need to flame out with
the grand idiocy of the dot.com-style promotions (‘who needs revenue?’)
of the secular bull ended 2000.  It is a cyclical bull that has already
run for 20% of the time of its secular predecessor, and a silly story
about a great rotation from bonds to stocks goes well with the dynamics
currently in play.  It is more in line with the garden variety insanity
that the inflation-fueled cyclical bull (2003-2007) promoted:  ‘house
prices will always go up’.

spx monthly chart

A cycle nears its end. Will it be different this time?

The kinds of people who chase late-stage bull markets need
paint-by-numbers direction.  After all, to these people there are only
“stocks and bonds” per the most basic, fundamental and ongoing financial
industry promotion.

The chart above shows an epic setup in the making.  The first part of
the big play will be to either preserve capital or for those willing to
risk the short side, capitalize on the next down cycle.  The best
opportunity however, would probably be to buy assets for pennies on the
dollar at the next cycle bottom.

Meanwhile, it appears bull heroes are being made as the
trend-following media celebrate the brave contrarians that called the
bull when everyone was bearish in 2009.  Where was the media last
summer?  The end of the world is what it was promoting then.

Bring on SPX 1550+ and the potential for a profound transition sometime in mid-late 2013 or early 2014.

[Note the word 'potential'.  Nobody has a crystal ball, but
technical targets, bull cycle duration and the current sentiment
backdrop argue strongly for a defensive stance on balance when viewing
the entirety of 2013.  Meanwhile, this post measures SPX targets of 1562 and 1589 for euphoric bulls to chew on.]

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