Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Oil Continues to Weaken

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Although I have a new habit of flipping off every gas station I pass, now that my family's vehicle fleet is 100% electric (with the addition of my beautiful new Tesla S), I still take note of the prices, which are once again approaching $5 per gallon.

I suppose this must be the result of California's insane taxes, refinery inefficiencies, and shameless profiteering, because crude oil isn't exactly soaring. USO, the ETF for oil, is a tough chart to read, but it looks increasingly vulnerable to much greater weakness.

0304-uso

Another Slope Triumph

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Hecla Mining (symbol HL) has been one of my favorite shorts in a sector I've been bearish on for ages – gold miners. Of course, I've managed to antagonize the "gold is going to $5,000/ounce" crowd (sort of like the Apple is going to $1,000/share crowd) by repeatedly pointing to how miners are completely doomed, and I continue to stand by this disposition.

In any event, Hecla is down about 13% just in the first hour of trading today, and I wouldn't fall over dead of shock if this stock was trading under a buck within the next couple of years.

0304-HL

Dr Copper is Unwell (by Springheel Jack)

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The overnight decline on ES didn't follow through on Friday and I'm in two minds about further downside this week, though there is a decent setup for considerable further downside on a conviction break below 1485. ES is forming a triangle at the moment and we'll see which way that breaks. Even if the retracement low is in however, there is still a decent argument for that low to be tested. It won't be long before rising support from the November low will reach the 1485 level, and at the least I would like to see that trendline confirmed with a third touch:

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Money Flow for February Week Four (by Strawberry Blonde)

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Further to my last Weekly Market Update, this week's update will look at:

  • 6 Major Indices
  • 9 Major Sectors
  • Bank Stocks
  • AAPL and AAPL:NDX Ratio
  • 30-Year Bonds
  • U.S. $

 6 Major Indices

As shown on the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts below of the Major Indices, the Stochastics indicator is well in overbought territory on all timeframes (although the NDX and RUT are slightly below on the Daily timeframe), and the Indices are range-bound and trading at/near all-time highs.

I mentioned in my post of February 27th that "market participants have recently been favouring large-cap, more defensive, stocks over riskier, high-beta small-cap and tech stocks, as they have been grinding higher toward their all-time high levels. I'll be watching to see if money begins to start flowing into small-cap and tech stocks any time soon to signal that the markets are willing to take on more risk that may be needed to push all of the Major Indices to new all-time highs and sustain that kind of momentum going forward for the balance of the year. Otherwise, we could see some serious profit-taking and pullback begin in the not-too-distant future in all Indices."

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