Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Weekly Upper Bollinger Band Punches #2

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I was saying last week that punches well above the weekly upper bollinger band were both rare and very bearish, and I really wasn’t expecting to see one last week, but to my surprise SPX closed at 1798.18, well over the weekly upper band at 1789.98, so we have the second strong punch over the weekly upper BB in 2013, which is the first time there have been two of these in a single calendar year since 2004. (more…)

The Year of Living Dangerously

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We live in a very complex world, and even I don’t think history repeats itself perfectly. I was curious, though, to see how the market had behaved with respect to time during the last prior run-up. Below I’ve (crudely) drawn a box representing the length of time of the 2002-2007 bull market; it spanned almost precisely five years. I’ve also (again, crudely) drawn a box for the present run-up (which in my opinion bottomed in November 2008, broadly speaking, in spite of the nominal lower on the S&P 500). So we’re kind of “due” around now. (more…)