Bullish Tuesday vs Key Resistance

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Yesterday was a very dull trading day that almost achieved complete meaninglessness, avoided only because SPX held above the daily middle band all day, closing 12 points above the middle band. SPX is therefore consolidating above the daily middle band and the next obvious target on the daily chart is the daily upper band, now at 1897. SPX daily chart:

140422 SPX Daily Trendlines BBs MAs

Before SPX can make an attempt at testing the 1897 high however, it will first need to break up through resistance at the last rally high at 1872.53. The intraday high yesterday was at 1871.89 which was just short of a test. The double-top target is a whisker higher at 1873 of course.

What are the odds that 1872.53 resistance will be broken? I suggested 70/30 in favor of a break to someone last night and I’d put that higher this morning. Tuesdays have been extremely bullish lately, even through the sideways action that we have seen so far in 2014, and everything seems set up here for a break above to at least test the current 1897 high. We may well see 1872.53 broken in the first few trading minutes today. SPX 60min chart:

140422 SPX 60min Double Bottom Setup

Where are we up to on the possible H&S forming on NDX? NDX closed at 3560 yesterday, some 70 points, and two or three days, short of the ideal right shoulder high there. If SPX and NDX are in sync then NDX would reach the ideal right shoulder high at about the same time that SPX tests the 1987 high. We could well see the Spring high made then and there. NDX daily chart:

140422 NDX Daily Poss HS Scenario

I’m going to be posting some foreign indices over the next few days to see where those are up to, and the first of those is the FTSE, where it seems likely that the 2014 spring high has already been made, and that FTSE is just waiting for the US to peak too before retracing at least to rising wedge support. FTSE daily chart:

140422 FTSE Daily Rising Wedge from 2009

I might be mistaken but I’m expecting to see resistance at 1872.53 SPX broken today. Once that breaks we might see a retracement to test the daily middle band at 1859, but as long as that holds I’ll be looking for a move up to test the 1897 high, and we might see that tested this week.