Yesterday morning SPX gapped over the 50 hour MA at 1843, double-bottom resistance at 1844, and the 50 DMA and falling channel resistance at 1847. Those held as support for the rest of the day and the opening gap didn’t fill, so as long as they hold as support this morning the next step is to proceed towards the double-bottom target at 1873, in effect a test of the last rally high at 1872.53. SPX 60min chart:
At the low on Tuesday I drew in a half-doodled possible megaphone on my SPX 1min chart. I didn’t mention it yesterday morning but it had my attention after the AM high yesterday was at megaphone resistance. We could see a test of 1872.53 within that megaphone today. SPX 1min chart:
The close today will be interesting on both the daily and weekly charts. On the daily chart the close yesterday was slightly over the middle bollinger band, currently at 1859. Promising but not yet a break over it with any conviction. I’ll be watching to see whether SPX can do better today to open up the daily upper bollinger band as a target. SPX daily chart:
The close on the weekly chart will also be interesting to see whether we see a conviction break back over the middle band, currently at 1832. Regardless of that there is still an open 80% probability target, that I was looking at on Monday after the punch below the middle band, to hit the lower band before the next hit of the upper band. This might of course be one of the other 20%, as a similar candle was last year. SPX weekly chart:
For today I’m looking for a morning low and then a move up that could reach the double-bottom target at 1873. There is a chance of a significant decline in the afternoon which I’ll be watching for. Tomorrow is Good Friday so my next post will be on Monday morning. Everyone have a great holiday weekend 🙂
