Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Back Online

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My broadband connection is back up but hasn’t been back up for long so just a two chart post this morning.

SPX fell again to hit major support in the 1840 area yesterday. The very narrow and steep falling channel from the high broke up on positive 15min RSI divergence, and this is a very natural area to see a rally. What I would add there though is that a channel that looks like this one is very rarely a complete move. I am expecting a rally and then a further decline of whatever size to start from the top of that rally. SPX 15min chart:

140408 SPX 15min Falling Channel and Fibs

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VXX Sux

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I have traded the VXX only once or twice in my entire life, and I know nothing of its nuances. I was surprised, however, to see what I saw today: while the $VIX was up double-digits, the VXX was up something pathetic like 1.8%. I (naively) assumed that VXX and $VIX moved in lockstep. I decided to lay down the two items on top of one another in ProphetCharts, and as you can see, the VXX (in blue) excels in pretty much going down all the time, almost irrespective of the $VIX’s wild moves: (more…)

Bitcoin and the South Sea

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One of the earliest chapters in my Panic, Prosperity, and Progress book is about the South Sea Bubble. I know I’m not the first chap to compare the insane Bitcoin bubble (which is rapidly deflating) with South Sea, but I am truly struck by the similarities. Here’s what happened with South Sea, four centuries ago………(the notations about Newton relate to Sir Isaac Newton’s own investing losses with this “security”:). I’ve put an arrow approximating where I think we are right now with respect to the Bitcoin analog……… (more…)

Slope Scoops the Old Grey Lady

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No, I’m not referring to Yellen again. I am referring to The New York Times. Let me explain…….

Since I attempt not to irk my readers overly frequently, I’ve learned to avoid the Warren Buffett topic in general. I last mentioned him a couple of months ago, and as usual, a chorus of Uncle Warren Is Awesome folks jumped up and down. Even with my usual preface about what a gee-whiz swell guy he is, from the banjo-pickin’ to the homespun wisdom, daring to question the So What of Omaha gets me into trouble. (more…)