With the exception of a special market analysis video for my Slope+ members, I haven’t done any market analysis on the blog this weekend. I am coming to you now live and in person from the Snoopy’s Home Ice skating rink in way-too-far-from-home Santa Rosa, California. It seems that any building more than twenty years old provides about one electrical outlet for every 50,000 square feet, so I am uncomfortably sitting on a rubber mat at the far end of the ice skating ring. But as long-time readers know, Slopers come first in my life.
I’m quite short (88 positions) and I have a ton of charts on the sidelines that are either shortable or will be shortable (something like 50). There are plenty of rumblings this weekend from Ukraine (“Ukraine Mobilizes Military, Gives Separatists Ultimatum; Russia Slams Escalation As “Criminal”, Yanukovich Warns Of Civil War”). So instead of doing another navel-gazing post, I thought I’d just toss out a wild-ass guess about what’s ahead.
As Market Sniper tells us repeatedly, no one knows what the market is going to do, and I think I can sheepishly point to 2010-2013 as living proof of that (cough cough cough). And you need glance no farther than my SocialTrade stack of Prediction Fails to see how others besides your humble host have badly missed the mark over the years (including the famed Bradley Siderograph, which apparently is as useful as the proverbial teats on a boar).
So with that caveat, I offer you one suggestion of what might be forthcoming: by autumn of this year, a tagging of the next Fibonacci fanline, which would put us at about 1600, a drop of about 12% from present levels. I know that doesn’t sound too dramatic, but to this chartist, it seems like the most logical major support zone.
More specifically, the pathway to this prospect would be:
(1) A continuation of the drop we’re in now to about 1750, roughly matching the February lows on most indexes;
(2) Some stupid-ass rescue from that pig Yellen (or some other swine), restoring hope, blossoms, and unicorn farts to the hearts and souls of goodly men, both hither and yon;
(3) A stalling out in the vicinity of 1850 for a while;
(4) A late summer/early autumn resumption of the fall which cuts under 1700, recovers a little, and then plunges to the target of 1600.
My “tell’ to get out of my current shorts will be a VIX at around 22 or so, which I’m counting on happening within the confines of the next three weeks. If I manage to do this, I can offer solid assurances of generous back-patting on my part. But we can cross that self-congratulatory bridge if and when we get to it.