Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Where Have the Stock Markets Gone?

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The following is a definition of “STOCK MARKET” as provided by Investopedia.com:

     “The market in which shares of publicly-held companies are issued and traded either through exchanges or over-the-counter markets. Also known as the equity market, the stock market is one of the most vital components of a free-market economy, as it provides companies with access to capital in exchange for giving investors a slice of ownership in the company. The stock market makes it possible to grow small initial sums of money into large ones, and to become wealthy without taking the risk of starting a business or making the sacrifices that often accompany a high-paying career.”

I would suggest that, since various world Central Banks (A.K.A. financial policy-makers) have been busy buying into a variety of world markets since the bottom of the 2008/09 financial crisis, these former stock markets are no longer a “component of a free-market economy.” The Bank of Japan is but one example of this practice, as evidenced in their most recent policy statement issued on October 31st. Therefore, the markets that you have been (and are still) trading do not fall under the definition of a STOCK MARKET. Rather, they are entities totally under the control of Central Banks and no longer exist as stock markets.

The Path Less Travelled

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Well the doji consolidation stats I posted yesterday gave 75% odds of a small retrace before (most likely) higher, but once again SPX took the lower probability path of the 25% chance of breaking up. It was a clear breakout candle so I have looked at the four of sixteen of these from the start of 2009 that broke up and the following days for these played out as follows:

– Trend up day on day 2 for 1.5% gain. Short term high slightly higher on day 3
– Modest gain on day 2. Short term high on day 4
– Modest gain and short term high on day 2
– Inside day in upper half of breakout candle on day 2. Short term high on day 4

Now this is only a sample size of four, but the lean is clear. These stats are suggesting that yesterday did not make a short term high, and that that a short term high should be made from today through Friday, and could be as much as 2% higher. Three out of the four closed green on day 2, and the fourth close was only slightly below the breakout candle close. The lean coming into today therefore needs to be bullish, though with the expectation that there should be a short term high this week that should then retrace into (75%) or near (25%) the doji consolidation area that SPX just broke up from. (more…)