The rising channel that I showed yesterday morning didn’t survive much past the open. The rally from the AM low was strong, though fitful but I was thinking that things might just e back on track for more upside, though I was concerned that the rally from the lows failed at each of the three retests of broken channel support. I closed the day thinking that the uptrend was fragile, but might just get past 2064 into the highs retest area.
Overnight though ES has fallen hard, and at the time of writing is a clear 25 handles under the close, and well below yesterday’s intraday low, which on SPX is double top with a target in the 2016/7 area on a break below it. SPX 5min chart:
On a daily close basis the key support here is at the daily middle band, currently at 2042. Bears want a conviction break below this at the close today to confirm that the downtrend has resumed. SPX daily chart:
There is an interesting rally setup brewing here on CL. Risky but potentially very profitable. CL 60min chart:
My personal feeling here is that the downtrend is resuming and that we will see new retracement lows in the near future. There is a chance though that we may first see a retest of the daily middle band in the 2042 area from below, and if we see a rally near the open that would be my ideal target. I’m doubtful about seeing much higher and if we see that rally I’d expect the downtrend to resume afterwards.
