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The rally in crude oil has been impressive, but context is important. Let’s take a look at the past month on an hourly bar basis:
As you can see, crude has had three rallies this month, and the peaks (circled in red) have been a little lower each time. I would suggest that this time is no different, and unless we bolt above $54.33, this is probably just another countertrend rally in the context of an ongoing bear market in energy.
I haven’t dug into comments to investigate, but I gather our man Springheel Jack is under the weather. To give me a chance to pull together some charts, I’ll just toss out this puzzling little tweet that just hit my feed; the text of the tweet contrasted with the message on the shirt is, errrr, unfortunate.
Well, it’s 4:30 in the flippin’ morning, and I’m trying to get used to my new schedule. Yikes.
Just as a comment cleaner, the ES has outdone itself, pushing past even the contract high of December 26:
Hi, Slopers – – sorry I’ve been so quiet today. I had to get up super-early this morning to get one of my children to the airport. Frankly, I’d better get used to this new schedule, because starting next week, I get my own show on Tastytrade (that’s the good news) for which I have to be up at 4:30 every morning (that’s the not-so-good news). Anyway………
The Dow Jones Composite index fish/ichthus/Jesus pattern is still intact, although if tomorrow is anything like today, that could be over in a big hurry. For, for now, hope springs eternal in the bearish breast:
I’m not well today as my daughter caught a nasty cold/flu bug at school and has successfully passed it on to me. This is a short post for today and I’ll do the same tomorrow. Looking at my daughter this week I’d expect to be largely recovered by Monday:
On the daily chart we now have a clear break over range resistance with the open this morning above that. The obvious targets now are a retest of the high at 2093.55 and the daily upper band at 2088.97, though that might well be in the same area as the all time high by the time that it is reached. SPX daily chart:
