The (Seemingly) Eternal Triangle

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We’ve now seen an epic six tests of triangle resistance on SPX. I’m expecting it to break up but starting to wonder if I’ll live long enough to see that happen (j/k). Expecting to see another run at that today and hopefully this time it will break up. SPX 60min chart:

150423 SPX 60min Triangle

Triangles do eventually have to break of course, and the TLT triangle broke down yesterday. That move also broke the double top and I’m expecting to reach pattern targets in the 125-6 area. I would then expect to see a lower low under 122.71 on the way to targets much lower. TLT 60min chart:

150423 TLT 60min Double Top Playing Out

I’m leaning towards a bull break over triangle resistance today. If we see a hard reversal down instead I’d note that a break below yesterday’s low at 2091.05 would trigger a double top target in the 2072 area at a retest of Monday’s low at 2072.37. A break below that would invite a test of triangle support in the 2055 area. I’d be surprised to see that but it’s worth bearing in mind.