Complacency is King

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“This is the most hated rally in history”

“It isn’t a bubble because people think it’s a bubble”

“Everybody is bearish”

The above quotes, uttered constantly, are the biggest pile of fetid gorilla dung in recent memory. If you want to see how “hated” the rally is or how bearish “everyone” is, take a good, long drink of the XIV graph. This is the inverse ETF of the VIX, and a good way to think of it is this: it measures complacency. The stronger the chart, the more sedate, calm, mellow, and unworried people are. Here we have it:


So I think the more accurate reality is:

“This is the most beloved rally in history”

“History has proved no one knows it’s a bubble until after it’s burst”

“Nobody is bearish…………….except for Tim Knight”