Expecting Rally Soon

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SPX blew through my 2072.37 support yesterday and so my lean is now that the spring high was made at 2025. SPX went well below the daily lower band yesterday but rallied to close on it, and the question today is whether we are to expect a rally soon to retest the daily middle band as resistance (currently 2100 area and falling), or whether bears can manage a lower band ride into double top support at 2039. SPX daily chart:

150507 SPX Daily Rising Wedge and DT Setup

I’m leaning towards the bounce scenario, as a falling wedge has formed from the 2020 high and broken up at the close yesterday afternoon. SPX may well retest yesterday’s low, and might go a few handles lower, but that falling wedge should then deliver a bounce into at least the 2088 area, and possibly as high as 2100. SPX 5min chart:

150507 SPX 5min Falling Wedge

I think the spring high is in but the falling wedge is strongly suggesting a rally before the next leg down. I like a retest of yesterday’s low or a bit lower first but we may not see that.