Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Lower Band Ride – Day 3

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A strong day for the bears yesterday and SPX has reached another inflection point. A clear falling wedge has developed from the triangle break and that’s a 70% bullish pattern that broke up slightly before the final decline yesterday afternoon.

If that falling wedge breaks up today then I’d expect at minimum a retest of the 2095-7 area, and on a conviction break back above 2100 then perhaps a retest of the highs. if this wedge now breaks down, and we should always remember that a 70% bullish pattern will break down 30% of the time, then the target would be in the 2040 area, essentially a test of main double top support there. SPX 15min chart:

150609 SPX 15min Triangle and Falling Wedge

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ES Long Signal

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If you have been following our advice on May 15, 2015, you may have made some good profits on the latest correction (see chart below).

Here is what we wrote on SOH, that date:

Now a good, new going-SHORT opportunity is coming up in these days […]. The ESM15 has almost reached a DAILY area where the odds to go SHORT are quite good: 2127.25, 63.82% overbought. WEEKLY and MONTHLY time periods are not supporting the trade, meaning that this is probably only a quick swing trading opportunity, however things may change if/when the market reaches the ~2140 price area. From there also the WEEKLY and MONTHLY overbought gauges will go above 50% in value and thus create a better-than-a-coin flip edge for the SHORT trader. (more…)

The Long View

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I decided to look at some very long-term index charts today, and all I’ve got to say is this: anyone buying equities right now is out of their freaking mind. It’s as simple as that. Our friends in Gainesville have been so battered the past six years, even they are firmly clasping their hat in their hands, saying we might be set for lifetime highs. Not me. Stick a fork in this rally. It’s done.

0608-rut (more…)

Eye on EBAY

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After breaking out, EBAY pulled back to the 61-handle support area, allowing us to unwind the puts entered into at resistance in our model portfolio.  This was just in time, as EBAY reversed to push to new highs, despite a week tape. At this point, it is likely that wave (iii) of circle-iii will reach at least the 1.618 extension of wave (i) at 65.00 (red fibs). I will consider reducing risk at that time. Conversely, further pullbacks to 61 handle will have me consider adding to the long side of the trade.

full-63fce2e5a6b353c6bf854deb6ec9eaed694ade74By Xenia Taoubina, ElliottWaveTrader.net

More SlopeFest Pictures

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I’ve been inundated with terrific pictures of SlopeFest (particularly from Felicia – thank you!) so wanted to share a few more. I’m sorry not to label these with names of real people, but I have three reasons for not doing so: (a) I’m being lazy and don’t want to bother (b) I am terrible with names and could only successfully label a few folks (c) I’d like to respect their identities to some degree. Of course, there are some people that are kind of obvious (like, say, Dutch). Here ya go!

0608-fest8 (more…)