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SPX retraced a bit yesterday, rather more so than the daily candle suggested, as the retrace of the channel from Friday’s low to yesterday’s high was close to the 23.6% minimum in a strong trend. I’m expecting more, but it may go the other way.
If we are going to see more retracement then I’m looking for a double top or H&S to form here to take SPX down towards the obvious targets at rising support from the 1871 low and a retest of the daily middle band, now at 1948. SPX 15min chart:
I did a snarky post (which is kind of a forte of mine) about GoPro late last February, which you can read here. But, once again, my snarkiness wasn’t snarky enough, because the stock was 50% higher then compared to now. I guess the old camera-on-a-stick technology makes a great IPO but not a great long-term investment.
Well, October has sucked out loud for me so far. Equities and commodities are surging (just as DG predicted………incredible!). Not to hang my hopes on too thin a reed, but I at least wanted to point out that the commodity ETF, symbol DBC, is at the top of its two-month range at a level that, for the third time, has represented resistance. We’ll see if we fall or break from here. Oil will be the deciding factor.
I’ll be the first to admit being disappointed that last night’s Bank of Japan “nothing done” announcement led to a lift in ES after being down oh-so-briefly. All the same, looking at the big picture, it seems to me the broad trend still favors patient bears. What would really help the cause would be for oil to start losing some of its gusto (and I’m really hoping Gartman’s mega-bullishness on commodities starts to work its magic soon):
