Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Retesting the 1879 Low

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Well the 1879 SPX target really delivered hard yesterday with a impressive 56 handle rally off 1878.93 yesterday. I did mention on twitter though that in the absence of an obvious reversal pattern that there was a significant risk that the low might well be retested, and that there was no obvious reversal pattern. It seems very likely that the 1879 is going to be retested this morning. If that low holds then that sets up a possible double bottom with a target in the 1990 area on a break back over yesterday’s high. If that low breaks hard then Stan’s next level is in the 1852 area, and a really hard break below 1879 opens up a possible retest of the October low at 1820. This is angry tape and needs to be traded with caution and respect. SPX 60min chart:

160115 SPX 60min Falling Wedge Broken Up

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Good God

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Well, ummm, yeah, this is our year. My 55 shorts are all smiling. However, yesterday I (foolishly) thought I’d dip my toe into the gee-energy-is-oversold waters and went long some times from the devastated commodities sector. I just woke up, and I am kind of feeling that regret in a big way. My original tactic to “not be long, but just be less short when necessary” was obviously the smart way to go. It’s unfortunate I strayed from that. What’s happening in 2016 is eye-popping, even for someone as bearish as yours truly.

0114-whoops

We Have Run Out of Customers (by Bob Kudla)

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Let me explain:

The concept is beyond supply and demand, at some point the price gets to a point where there is not enough buyers at any price that makes sense to produce or serve, and for the world this has now become a structural problem, and will turn deflation into a depression.  Capital owners are resisting lowering their rate of return at a slower rate than consumers ability to purchase their goods and services.

Background (more…)

Gasoline Going for the Big ONE (by MoneyMiser21)

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While most of the energy sector focus is on oil (/cl), it’s the gasoline futures (/rb) which are nearing the next big level.

Zooming out to the monthly chart on /rb, we see that price has already traded beneath the lowest monthly close of from the 2008-09 crash (Dec. 2008, white dash line) at 1.062.

The next target is a big one, as in 1.00 even (blue solid line). That’s a price not seen since January 2009.

Beneath that we have the 2008-09 crash low of 0.785 hit in December 2008.

There is NO SIGN of slowing the downward momentum, which means certain parts of the county could see $1.00 or lower gas prices at the pump should we re-test that 2008 low.

The one factor which will come into play starting with the March contract will be seasonality, and the general drift higher of gas prices into the Summer driving season.