Slope of Hope Blog Posts

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Three Day Rule – Day Three

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I’ve been watching the coverage of this month’s potentially market moving crisis du jour which is the Brexit campaign. How long will this remain ‘important’ even if the Brexit camp wins? That’s hard to say. Anyone remember Ukraine? The campaign has been funny in places though, I thought the concern that Britain’s growth prospects might be damaged long term by leaving the slowest growing region in the world was particularly witty, though that may not have been intentionally the case.

How does that impact trading this week? Well I think the Remain camp will most likely win the vote. The status quo always has a big advantage in this kind of poll and fear of the unknown is a potent message, even if uninspiring and suggestive that there is no positive message to sell instead. As you can see from the video below (thanks to @busculture on twitter for sending me this), the Remain message hasn’t really changed since the last Brexit referendum in 1975. They won then, and they’ll likely win now. That should favor the bulls at least initially. Crisis du Jour:

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