Meanwhile, Back on Earth

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Same old FOMC yesterday with a lot of wind, a lingering smell, and a vast amount of analysis of a move that was difficult to detect without a microscope, and is largely irrelevant to real world interest rates in any case. Moving on …

SPX tested my target trendline for this move on Tuesday and I was watching for likely resistance there. With the 29 handle decline into yesterday’s low from there I think it’s fair to say that there is resistance there, and SPX may now be in the topping process for the December high, and as I’ve mentioned, we are expecting this high to last well into 2017.

SPX hasn’t broken short term rising wedge support, and the action so far is suggesting we may well see the high retested today. My working assumption would be a marginal new all time high into lower lows under yesterday’s low. SPX 60min chart:

161215 SPX 60min

TF spent all night under the weekly pivot but then broke up towards falling megaphone resistance. That has now broken with a target at the retest of the all time high. as with SPX, RUT is at serious trendline resistance so that may well be the second high of a double top. TF Dec 60min chart:

161215-I AM TF Mar 60min

A retest of the all time highs on SPX/ES and RUT/TF today or tomorrow could well make the December high, and we’re expecting that to be a significant high that won’t be tested again for several months. We’re actively looking for that high now & are doubtful about extensive further upside, though we do have some possible targets a bit higher on all of SPX, NDX and RUT.

Stan and I are doing public webinars with forecasts on a wide variety of instruments (including bonds) for 2017 at an hour after the closes today and tomorrow. These are public and free to all and if you’d like to attend you can sign up for those on this page here.