Rising Channel Established on ES

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Boring tape so far this week but the interesting news yesterday on ES was that a rising channel was established from the 2227 low. Channel support is now at 2260.75 and a break below would be bearish. All of ES, NQ & TF are now on weak 60min buy signals, so my lean is that channel support holds and ES has a decent chance of making the all time high retest today or tomorrow, though the tape this week so far has been memorably dull. ES Mar 60min chart:

170119 AM ES Mar 60min

NQ made the all time high retest target at the open, so there is no longer an open pattern target above there. NQ Mar 60min chart:

170119 AM NQ Mar 60min

TF has been underperforming the other two all week and when I capped the chart below this morning was looking modestly bullish. TF then broke above both small double bottom support and declining resistance before rejecting back down, so that is still looking very weak. TF Mar 60min chart:

170119 AM TF Mar 60min

I was asked yesterday how likely it is that ES would reject at the all time retest and make a significant higher there. It’s possible but we are leaning towards seeing a run a bit higher, very possibly to test 2300 on SPX. In terms of the rising channel that is rising at about 2.25 handles per day and it is 38.5 handles wide, so channel resistance at the time of writing is at 2299.25. That channel resistance test is the maximum that I am expecting on continuation upwards from the all time high retest on ES/SPX.

Stan and I are doing a free educational webinar at theartofchart.net tonight an hour after the close and all are welcome. The subject is ‘Using Fibonacci Sequences in Trading’, and you can sign up for that on this page here.

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