Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Apple’s Poo Hits the Fan
I’m not going to mince words: I think the features Apple is cramming into the newest iPhone has reached retard level. Being able to talk and have your voice portrayed by an animated chimp, or a unicorn, or – – my favorite – – a big pile of shit – – just isn’t what the world needs.
As I said yesterday, it’s all about marginal utility. The delta between “no iPhone exists” to the first iPhone was gigantic. Everyone just had to have one. Ten years later, though, they’re sort of running out of meaningful or useful new features, and it’s starting to show:
The Buffoon Indicator
A couple of weeks ago, in a rare moment of self-awareness, I wrote a post called Bullion Buffoon, in which I mentioned my nearly Gartman-like levels of bad timing with respect to bullion, and that…….
This is on my mind for obvious reasons – – gold has been steadily ascending lately. It’s had a good 2017 in general, but the North Korea situation has been particularly good to it, prompting me to have that “I should buy gold” feeling.
The correct conclusion, of course, was that since I was getting that special itch, gold had probably topped for the moment. Of course,I had to overthink the situation and declare that since I was NOT acting on that feeling, then gold would keep going up (e.g. “woe is me”). One is reminded of the scene in Princess Bride and the poison dilemma.
In any case, my bullion buffoon indicator was almost spot-on, as we can see:
Nine Years Past
I remember it like it was yesterday. But it was yesterday……..plus nine years. That is, September 19, 2008. I was at Prophet’s office, and the CEO of thinkorswim, Lee Barba, was visiting. I had sold Prophet to Investools (its prior name) in early 2005, and Lee would come visit us from time to time to check in, share ideas, and catch up.
The market had been roiled off and on in the first nine months of 2008, and the team of Bernanke and Paulson had enough. During the trading day, several gargantuan initiatives were announced, including TARP and the banning of short-selling in about 800 stocks. (You may notice during the multi-hundred percent gain of the past eight years, no one has suggested banning BUYING stocks. But I digress).
Anyway, the reaction was immediate and ferocious. In the span of just two days, the Dow Industirals exploded 780 points higher, and with the big, bad bears banned, it seemed that Wall Street’s eleven-month dip in stocks was at an end.
It wasn’t:
