Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Pattern Number Three?
It seems the big news everyone is waiting for is tomorrow morning’s pre-market CPI and retail numbers. In the meanwhile, I’d like to point out that both the ES and NQ might be forming a third pattern, as I’ve tinted here, preceding another leg down. Once again, I cannot turn my head without seeing an article about how new highs are just around the corner, but maybe I’m just weird or stubborn in saying that We Are Done.
Equity “Volatility Gauges”
As mentioned in my 2018 Market Forecast, I think that volatility will remain elevated for much of 2018 (although to what extent will, no doubt, vary) in this evolving environment where Central Bankers are tightening monetary stimulus measures they deployed after the 2008/09 financial crisis.
As I posted in early February, near-term major support on the SPX lies somewhere in between 2525 and 2485. The upper edge of that zone was almost hit on Friday as it reached 2532, before snapping back to close the day higher.
The following daily comparison chart shows that 10-YR rates have held near their recent highs during the recent correction of the SPX. Whether rates continue to hold or push higher on any recovery in equities, and whether that may materially impact the extent of such a recovery, remains to be seen. As long as 10-YRT remains above, firstly, 2.67% and, ultimately, 2.5%, then equities will remain vulnerable to more wild swings and weakness. (more…)
Just Another Rally ……… Probably
I’m preparing a post putting a strong technical argument that the bull market from the 2009 low is not finished, and having a look at where SPX is likely to be within the structure of that bull market. The post may not be out until after the close tomorrow, but the video segment will be posted on our YouTube channel and I’ll be posting the link to that video on my twitter later today.
For today this is a nice rally from Friday’s low. Not expecting that to be the retracement low but there are fixed hourly RSI 14 buy signals that are not close to target and my lean would be that there is at least some more upside coming. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)
Maximum Lift?
I am still holding off going hog-wild with shorting. There’s too much “healing and recovery” that needs to take place. All the same, I think it’s going to exhaust itself relatively soon. Friday and today have helped, but roughly speaking, I don’t think the Dow is not going to get past 25,000. Then the fun begins anew.
