If you had asked me a week ago what I thought the probability was that we’d resume the downtrend and take out the lows of early February, I would have probably said 80%. Last week’s action (augmented by this morning’s) takes that down to more like 20%. It seems that, once again, the BTFD crowd was right. It sucks.
Oddly, the big tumble early in this month took place on pretty much no distinguishable news, and the same can be said for the recent lift. Let’s face it, the Dow has gone up thousands of points in just a couple of weeks, and no one can point to any real reason why. It’s pretty much like the “V-dip” didn’t need to take place at all (except to wipe out the unfortunates who owned XIV).
Anyway, we seem to be back in the godawful up-half-a-percent-every-single-day mode that we had been in before all the excitement began, and if we cross above the blue horizontal below, then we’ll just grind out way into the “DMZ” (tinted green) leading up to all the overhead supply. Simply stated, for me, the market has become boring and nauseating once again.